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In the second half of the day, we observed a test of the 1.2315 level while the MACD indicator had surged significantly above the zero mark, which limited the pound's potential for upside movement. As a result, I refrained from buying. Shortly after, another test of 1.2315 aligned with the MACD indicating an overbought condition, which prompted me to execute Scenario #2 for selling. This action led to a decline in the pair by more than 60 pips.
Additionally, strong U.S. labor market data revealing significant job growth and a drop in unemployment played a crucial role in weakening the pound. Investors responded by reassessing economic indicators and adjusting their forecasts for future interest rates, which bolstered the dollar and contributed to the decline of the British currency.
Given the rising threats to the UK economy, including inflation and instability in financial markets, the pound faces a potential further depreciation. Reports suggest that traders expect an additional 8% decline following the recent market downturn. Options data also indicates a possible breach of the 1.20 level against the dollar, with potentially more significant losses on the horizon. Trading volumes in GBP are currently higher than during both the Truss government period and the Brexit referendum. Furthermore, negative forecasts for the UK economy are intensified by worries about a possible recession.
For my intraday strategy, I will primarily concentrate on Scenario #1 and Scenario #2.
Scenario #1: Plan to buy the pound at around 1.2196 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.2254 (thicker green line). Near 1.2254, I plan to exit the buy position and open a sell trade in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 30–35 pips downward. Any upward movement in the pound today is expected to be corrective. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2135 level, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup will limit the pair's downside potential and trigger an upward market reversal. The target levels are 1.2196 and 1.2254.
Scenario #1: Plan to sell the pound after breaking below the 1.2135 level (red line on the chart), which is expected to lead to a sharp decline. The key target for sellers will be 1.2072, where I plan to exit the sell position and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction, targeting a 20–25 pip upward movement. Selling is more favorable at higher levels, which aligns with the ongoing bearish trend. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.2196 level, with the MACD indicator in the overbought zone. This setup will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. The target levels for this scenario are 1.2135 and 1.2072.
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