29.01.202513:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The EUR/JPY pair has encountered difficulties in securing a position above the key psychological level of 162.00. This decline is primarily driven by increased demand for the Japanese yen. Despite a generally positive sentiment in equity markets, expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan this year continue to provide support for the yen. Additionally, concerns about the economic impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies reinforce the yen's status as a safe-haven asset, further limiting EUR/JPY's upward potential.

From a technical perspective, the pair's repeated failures to break through the 164.70 level, which aligns with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), suggest the formation of a multi-top pattern on the daily chart. While oscillators are gradually shifting into negative territory, indicating potential downside pressure, caution remains warranted before opening short positions, particularly ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday. However, early signals still point toward a possible decline in the pair.

Key support levels are positioned between 161.55 and 161.50, near the 50-day SMA, followed by the 161.00 mark. A break below this threshold could expose the pair to further losses, potentially pushing it toward 160.50, with additional downside extending to the psychological 160.00 level and the monthly low near 159.70.

On the other hand, the intraday high around 162.50 represents immediate resistance before the 163.00 level. A breakout above this barrier could trigger a short-covering rally, targeting the 163.65–163.70 resistance zone, followed by a potential return to 164.00. If momentum persists, the pair may aim for a test of the 200-day SMA, signaling a possible shift in trend dynamics.