19.03.202507:44 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on March 19? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are few macroeconomic events scheduled for Wednesday, which suggests that volatility for both currency pairs may remain low until the evening. The dollar continues to show signs of weakness, but what can we expect from it moving forward? The Eurozone will release its second estimate of February inflation; however, these revisions rarely differ from the initial readings, so no significant market reaction is anticipated. No other macroeconomic reports are planned for the day.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

The most important event on Wednesday will be the Federal Reserve meeting. While the decision on the key interest rate is predictable, Jerome Powell's press conference and the "dot plot" chart could provide valuable insights. Currently, monetary policy is not the primary focus for traders, but this event may still provoke a notable market reaction.

According to the previous "dot plot" forecast, two rate cuts were expected in 2025. If today's chart indicates more or fewer expected cuts, this could influence trading strategies regarding the dollar. Powell's rhetoric will also be critical—if he adopts a more dovish tone, it may further weaken the dollar. However, by Thursday, we expect the market to revert to its main trend of selling the dollar, largely due to Donald Trump's policies.

General Conclusions:

Throughout Wednesday, both currency pairs could fluctuate in any direction, as the market is currently driven by emotions, with Donald Trump being the primary influence. A brief market "storm" may occur in the evening, temporarily strengthening the dollar. Nevertheless, monetary policy—even from the Fed—is not the key factor shaping market prices at this moment. The market is bracing for an all-out trade war between the U.S. and the EU, which continues to exert downward pressure on the dollar.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.