02.04.202506:25 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: What to Pay Attention to on April 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There will be very few macroeconomic events on Wednesday, but yesterday showed us that even a large number of macro reports do not always trigger significant movement—even within the day. Today, the only notable release will be the ADP Employment Report in the U.S., which reflects changes in private-sector employment. In other words, it's essentially a less significant version of the Nonfarm Payrolls report. The market will draw final conclusions based on the NonFarms, not the ADP data.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Among Wednesday's fundamental events, a few speeches from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve officials, including Philip Lane, Isabel Schnabel, and Adriana Kugler, are worth mentioning. However, we'd like to point out that today is April 2, and Donald Trump has yet to make official announcements regarding new tariffs. The market is waiting, as the tariff issue has been practically the only factor driving currency market movements in recent weeks. We believe the market has calmed down somewhat concerning tariffs, and a substantial decline in the dollar is unlikely. However, no one knows precisely what tariffs Trump will announce. If the U.S. president's decision turns out to be unexpected, a strong market reaction cannot be ruled out.

General Conclusions:

During the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade actively but could change direction multiple times throughout the day. There will be a few reports and events today. The market continues to wait for Trump's announcement on new tariffs. Once that information is released, strong movements are possible.

As a reminder, the British pound has been trading flat for weeks, while the euro has entered a phase of total confusion.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.