13.10.201412:16 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Gold Wave analysis for October 13, 2014

Gold price has found support above $1,180 and is now in an upward corrective bounce. Our longer-term view remains bearish towards $1,050-$1,000 but today I analyze my alternative wave scenario where we could first see a push towards $1,280-$1,300.

Let's look first at the short-term price action in gold. Accordng to our primary scenario that we have started wave 5 down, we have unfinished wave structure that implies a new low below $1,180, which is expected once this upward bounce is complete. The bounce has already reached the 38% retracement which is a typical price level for 4th waves. The break below $1,220 and $1,204 short-term support levels will confirm that the downtrend has resumed with $1,050 as 1st target.

In the chart above, I show my alternative wave scenario due to the triple bottom formation around $1,180. We could still be inside wave 4 and the bounce that started at $1,181 is probably wae E of wave 4. So we should not be surprised if we see gold price moving towards $1,300 to complete the sideways triangle correction before resuming its down trend towards $1,000.