11.07.201212:40 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD: Intraday Technical Analysis for July 11, 2012

USD/JPY is expected to move 123.80 with a bullish bias above. Currently, the US Dollar Index maintains its upward momentum trading at 97.582. It keeps on to depress commodities currencies. US crude oil prices dropped 4.1% closing at $45.17/bbl, while gold was down 0.9% and silver fell 1.9%. Meanwhile, the Australian central bank will announce its interest rate decision today. USD/JPY keeps on trading above the key support at 123.80 breaking above the 50-period intraday moving average. The intraday RSI has just landed on the neutral level of 50 and is turning up. The first upside target is set at 124.35 (around a high of July 31) and the second one at 124.60 (around the high of July 30). Only a break below 123.75 would turn the intraday outlookbearish and call for a decline toward 123.50 (around a low of July 31).

Technical comment:

The daily chart is still negative-biased as the MACD and stochastics are bearish, five-day moving average is below 15-day moving average and is declining.

Trading recommendations:

The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price keeps above its pivot point, long positions are recommended with the first target at 124.35 and the second target at 124.60. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 123.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards, and one may expect the second target at 123.30. The pivot point is at 123.80.

Resistance levels: 124.35 124.60 124.85

Support levels: 123.50 123.30 122.85