05.08.201505:45 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Technical analysis of EUR/USD for August 05, 2015

Long-term review

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The pair extended ist fall during yesterday's session after the US factory orders supported USD.

IMPACT ON EURO:

The number of unemployed registered at the offices of the Public Employment Services contracted to 74,028 in July, which is the biggest drop since 1998 and more than double that recorded in July 2014 (29,841 unemployed).

IMF official: the IMF and Greece has not reached an agreement on a new debt plan yet. Greece and Europe are ready to make the relevant decisions. The IMF officials can only support a comprehensive rescue package for Greece.

Upcoming events: Ahead of the US jobs data, traders focused on the US dollar. Today, they eye the ADP no-farm employment change, trade balance, and ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Traders do expect wild moves during a day.

Technical view:

The pair has been closing below 20Wsma at 1.1050 for three consecutive weeks. In the four-hour chart, the pair is trading in an ascending bearish channel, rejected at the upper end of the trendline willing to go further down. In case of a daily close above 1.1130, fresh longs will be added to the system.

Until the pair trades below 1.1000, sell on rises. The supply zone remains at higher levels between 1.1085 and 1.1100 50Dsma. Until the price closes below 1.1000, sell on rises. We have been recommending the same strategy for a while, Friday's session proved that the strategy remains valid in the near term. Monthly support is found at 1.0730.

Intraday resistance is seen at 1.0900, 1.0940, and 1.0990. Support is found at 1.0870 and 1.0850. In case the pair loses 1.0850 again, selling will accelerate.

Review: At yesterday's session, we forecasted that intraday selling would be available below 1.0930 with targets at 1.0900, 1.0870, and 1.0850. The pair hit a low at 1.0879.

Trade: Intraday selling is advised below 1.0850 with a target at 1.0810, the second round of panic is likely to be triggered below 1.0790.

Intraday buying is available above 1.0900 with a target at 1.0930.

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