30.12.201510:06 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 30/12/2015

Global macro overview for 30/12/2015:

The OPEC published its World Oil Outlook 2015 last week which were very pessimistic for oil producers: the OPEC group does not see oil prices returning to the triple-digit territory within the next 25 years. However, the group expects oil prices to rise by an average of about $5 per a year over the course of this decade with the projected target of $80 per a barrel in 2020. After that period, oil prices will increase even slower, hitting $95 a barrel in 2040. Please notice the long-term projections are notoriously inaccurate. The variables and assumptions included in such predictions might change dramatically over time (ii: GDP, inflation/deflation, or the rate of population growth). Nevertheless, the conclusion is quite clear: the OPEC group sees prospects of rising oil supply for years, which will prevent the prices from spiking suddenly to triple digits levels.

Meanwhile, crude prices rose slightly yesterday, but the market is still trading below the short-term resistance at the level of 38.17. The next support is found at the level of 36.60.