16.08.201613:05 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 16/08/2016

Global macro overview for 16/08/2016:

The ZEW Consumer Sentiment survey from Germany was released this morning and it was a mixed bag of data. The consumer sentiment was below the market expectations at the level of 0.5 points while expected number was at the level of 2.1 points after a plunge to - 6.8 a month ago. A little better was the current situation assessment that increased to the level of 57.6 from 49.8 a month ago and it was better than the expected growth to 50.2. In conclusion, this data might suggest that the sentiment of some of the financial experts throughout Europe has improved slightly, but it is not really a game-changer for the current mood, which still is more likely to decrease again in September.

Let's now take a look a the EUR/USD technical picture in the 4H time frame. Bulls managed to break out above the golden trend line and now they are heading towards the 78% Fibo at the level of 1.1317. Please notice that the growing bearish divergence suggests a reversal and decline, that might happen any time now. The next support is seen at the level of 1.1232 and any breakout below it will confirm the bearish scenario.