26.03.201311:56 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: EUR/USD. Forecast for March 26, 2013

After the euro grew 100 points during the Asian session it reversed and fell 190 points. Italy successfully placed 2-,5-, and 10-year bond yield. Negative information was on concern about situation on Cyprus and the fact that Cyprus’ banks are closed till Thursday and there is a rumor about the fact Moody's may downgrade Italy’s credit rating. Yesterday the EU representatives spoke about the situation on Cyprus and it may happen to any other EU member state. The head of the euro area group of finance ministers, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, said imposing losses on depositors are bondholders can be part of the bailout toolkit after such measures were taken to avoid default in Cyprus. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said low interest rates in advanced nations benefit the world economy while not creating a disruptive diversion of trade through weaker currencies.

Today at 16:30 GMT+4 data on US Durable Goods Orders in February is published. It is expected to be 3.8% vs. -5.2% in January. Durable goods orders excluding transportation is forecast to be 0.9% against 1.9%. At 18:00 GMT+4 data on US New Home Sales in February is revealed. It is expected to be 425K vs. 437K in January. The rise is possible is if the data is stronger than expected.

Technically, the price development is observed in the range of trendlines on the H4 1.2838 – 1.2894. If the support is tested, then the way to 1.2800, the level of Fibonacci 361.8%, opens. If the level of resistance is tested, then the way to Kruzenshtern line 1.2950 opens. Consolidation of the rate higher than the level of 1.2950 creates a local tendency to reverse.