30.06.201710:39 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 30/06/2017

Global macro overview for 30/06/2017:

Upbeat data from the US economy did not prevent the US Dollar from falling. The Final GDP data from the US was revised up to 1.4% from 1.2%, mainly due to better indicators of personal consumption expenditure, which hit a level of 1.1% from the low of 0.6% (but there was a small downward revision to investment growth for the quarter). The net exports were revised higher and the government spending was estimated to have contracted at a slower rate. The GDP Price Index was revised down to 1.9% from the previous estimate of 2.2% and this might trigger some uncertainty regarding the inflationary pressures.

At the last FOMC meeting, Chairperson Jannet Yellen still remained dovish and data-dependent in her monetary policy statements.The FED policy members still planning at least two interest rate hikes this year. However, if the underlying inflationary pressures will not rise fast enough, markets might start to feel disappointed as the hike will not be justified by the fundamentals. This is why the FED prefers to wait for more data before making any decision regarding the interest rate hike. Therefore, the next hike might be expected not in September 2017 but in December 2017, just before the year's end.

Let's now take a look at the US dollar index technical picture on the H4 time frame. The inflow of positive data from the US does not contribute to the strength of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, which assumes superiority to almost all G10 currencies. The price has violated the important technical support at the level of 95.91 and made a low at the level of 95.47 in oversold market conditions. The bias remains to the downside.