28.07.201703:40 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Trading plan for EURUSD and GBPUSD for July 28, 2017

Long-term review

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Technical outlook:

A bigger picture has been presented here after all the uncertain moves and the extended corrective rally in EUR/USD since last 7 months. We like the idea of riding the trend and hence it took time to produce the opportunity here. The EUR/USD is looking to complete or have already completed its corrective rally as Wave C (labelled above) or Wave 3 move within the 5 waves rally that began from January 03, 2017. The minimum implication is a dip towards Wave 4, which should terminate around 1.1200 region or a bearish trend reversal, which would take prices lower towards parity. In either case that should unfold, a bearish move is on cards from here on. A break below the immediate support at 1.1610 levels should confirm the same and we should see acceleration from there on.

Trading plan:

Please remain short from here, stop at 1.0790/95, target 1.1200/50. Time horizon is at least for next few weeks.

GBP/USD chart setups:

Technical outlook:

The GB/PUSD bigger picture also reveals that the pair has come out nicely since September 2016 through the present day to complete a corrective structure A-B-C, that included a triangle in between and might be producing an ending diagonal now. A break below 1.2930 levels from here would confirm that the diagonal structure has worked out well. Looking at the daily chart pattern, the pair seems to have formed a top at 1.3150/55 levels yesterday and should be ready to resume lower. The wave structure also reveals that wave (4) at a larger degree might have formed and prices should drop towards wave (5) which is expected to terminate below 1.2000. As an alternate though, the pair may choose to test its diagonal resistance line at 1.3170 levels before reversing again. Overall, please look lower from here.

Trading plan:

Please remain short from here, stop at 1.3250, target below 1.2000 several weeks from here.

Fundamental outlook:

Please watch out for EUR German Consumer Price Index, USD GDP Annualized between 08:00 am to 08:30 am EST today.

Good luck!

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