19.09.201711:34 Forex-elemzések és áttekintések: Global macro overview for 19/09/2017

Global macro overview for 19/09/2017:

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney had his five minutes yesterday as he advised caution in assessing the risks of Brexit. In his speech at the 2017 IMF Michel Camdessus Central Banking Lecturer had reiterated after his colleagues that an interest rate hike might come in the "coming months", but it will be gradual and limited. He added that monetary policy may have to "move in order to stand still" due to the possibility that global equilibrium interest rates are rising. Later on, he expressed his concerns regarding the post-Brexit situation as he said that lower immigration due to Brexit could contribute "more materially" to inflation pressure in the short term, with only modest impact in the long term. In conclusion, the anticipated interest rate hike by the Bank of England might be triggered only because the other central banks are hiking as well, which means the BoE hike will be a one-off event as the possibility of a series of an interest rate hikes is very limited.

Let's now take a look at the GBP/USD technical picture on the H4 time frame. The pair is trading around the level of 1.3464 under overbought conditions and a visible bearish divergence has formed between the price and the momentum indicator. The most important level for bulls is the technical support at the level of 1.3270 as any breakout lower will be the first sign that bears are in control over this market again. The larger time-frame trend is still upward.