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The first day of new week was flat. Current Account in the Eurozone in September was weaker than expected, 13.7 billion euros vs. forecast for 18.3 billion euros. Trade Balance was in line with the forecast 14.3 billion euros, nevertheless, the export grew 3% annually. The single currency was bought intentionally, which was not a characteristic of the British pound. However, due to the weakness of the stock market, the euro grew only 5 points, the pound dropped 10 points.
Today the market may get positive impulses. ZEW Economic Sentiment in November is published at 14:00 UTC+4. It is expected to be 54.6 vs. previous reading of 52.8. ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) is expected to be 63.1 vs. 59.1. There is no macroeconomic data on the UK, as well as in the US. However, during the evening the policymakers are speaking, United States Secretary of the Treasury Jack Lew, president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York and vice-chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee William C. Dudley and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Charles Evans. We suppose that before Janet Yellen is finally adopted for the post, they will not make sharp statements, such as hints on QE3 trimming since December 18. The voting in the Senate is scheduled on November 28.
We expect the euro will grow to the area 1.3550/70, the pound will make the other attempt to test the range 1.6140/50. However, taking into account the speculative growth of the euro and the pound which was observed lately and mixed expectations on US indicators tomorrow, the investors may start fix profits. If the data in Germany is worse than expected, the decline may worsen. In this case negative scenario is observed and the price of the euro will decline to 1.3450 and 1.3415 and for the pound the price will drop to 1.6050 and 1.6000.
USD/JPY.
On Monday, the Japanese yen lost 28 points, as a result of the decline of the stock indices. S&P500 lost 0.34%, Nikkei225 lost 0.01% and today by 7:00 UTC+4 it lost 0.75%.
Today there is no relevant data on Japan and the US, however, tomorrow will be a very important day. At 3:50 UTC+4 data on Trade Balance Total in October is revealed; it is expected to be -851.7 billion yen vs. -932.1 billion yen in September. Export rises from 11.5% to 16.2% annually and import grows from 16.5% to 19.0%.
At 8:30 UTC+4 on Wednesday All Industry Activity Index in September is revealed, forecast 0.5% vs. 0.3% in August.
We expect strong data on Japan, however, situation with data on the US is more difficult. Retail Sales in October is expected to grow, Existing Home Sales in October is expected to be lower than in September. Finally, Minutes of FOMC meeting are a sort of riddle.
On Thursday, Bank of Japan takes decision on the rate ans monetary policy and published commentaries on the decision. No changes are expected, however, there may be relevant prerequisites in the commentaries.
In the local situation we expect he growth to the depicted earlier price targets 100.45/60 and 100.85/95.
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