04.09.201808:11 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 04/09/2018

Revisione a lungo termine

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Tuesday's session in Asia is quite calm with a mixed overtone of the stock market. On the currency market, the changes are small, but AUD gains ground because the RBA refrained from dovish mentions. The US dollar is generally stronger with concerns that the US-China trade dispute will show its ugly face. Even so, EUR / USD is trying to keep just above 1.16; GBP / USD stabilizes at 1.12860; USD / JPY is at 111.15. On the stock market, the Japanese Nikkei trades around Monday's closing, while Shanghai Composite in China reversed the 0.3% decline into the 0.8% increase during the last hour of trading. On the commodity market, WTI crude oil drifts near $70, remaining around 1-month highs, and support is reported by the hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, which forces to stop the drilling work on the platforms located there.

On Tuesday, the 4th of September, the event calendar is busy with important data releases. Switzerland will post CPI data, the UK will present the Construction PMI only, but during the day there is scheduled the Inflation Report Hearing, so all of the MPC members will be testifying in form of the parliament, including the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. During the US session, Canada will post RBC Manufacturing data and the US will post ISM Manufacturing report.

AUD/USD analysis for 04/09/2018:

The Reserve Bank of Australia maintained the main interest rate at 1.50% as expected. The message remained largely unchanged from that of the month before. There was more optimistic language about wages and economic growth. After the AUD/USD decision, it increased from 0.7190 to 0.7230, as the market expected dovish mentions in response to the increase in mortgage rates by one of the leading commercial banks.

Let's now take a look at the AUD/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is trading below the blue trend line, but the new local high was made at the level of 0.7237. The technical support is seen at the level of 0.7222. The momentum is getting stronger and it is above its fifty level already, so there is a possibility of another wave up towards the level of 0.7246 or even higher. Moreover, this would mean the blue trend line violation, which is also a strong bullish signal.

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