18.10.201808:14 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Trading plan for 18/10/2018

The minutes of the September FOMC meeting did not bring any major surprises, though it left a more hawkish tone in line with the last statements of the committee members. Opponents of the policy shift to a more restrictive region remain in the minority, and several members are in favor of raising interest rates above the neutral rate.

GBP shows the weaker side after the comments of the EU Brexit barrier negotiator that it takes some time to reach an agreement on the divorce contract. EU leaders have abandoned the plan of the Brexit summit in November and will wait for Barnier's decision to advance with the convening of the meeting.

This morning FT reports that Prime Minister Theresa May has handed over European leaders ready to consider Britain's maintenance in the EU after 2020 in an extended transition period. This movement enraged Eurosceptics in the Conservative Party.

The stock market erases yesterday's increases and the Japanese Nikkei225 is losing 0.8 percent, and the Chinese Shanghai Composite falls by 2 percent.

On Thursday, the 18th of October, the event calendar is light in important data releases, but the global investors should keep an eye on Wholesale Price Index data from Germany, Retail Sales data from the UK, Unemployment Claims from the US and ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data from Canada.

USD/JPY analysis for 18/10/2018:

During the night there was also a meeting with the president of Bank of Japan. Kuroda said the economy of Japan is slowly improving and probably this development will continue. Consumer inflation still oscillates around 1%, so there is still a long way to go. The Japanese financial system remains stable. BOJ will maintain QQE and will control the yield curve of bonds until inflation reaches the level of 2%. The central bank will apply loose monetary policy for a long time. If necessary, the Bank of Japan will make changes in its monetary policy to keep up the inflation momentum. BOJ is still highly committed to informing the public and markets about its activities and possible risks to the stability of the country's financial system.

Let's now take a look at the USD/JPY technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market has broken above the black trend line and the bulls have managed to push the prices towards the 38% Fibo retracement at the level of 112.74. Since then, the price is slightly moving down and the technical support at the level of 112.52 was broken already. The next technical support is seen at the level of 112.13 - 112.04 zone. Please notice, that the current market conditions are overbought at this time frame and support the short-term pullback outlook of this pair.