19.12.201808:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Global macro overview for 19/12/2018

At the last meeting this year, the Fed should raise the target for the federal reserves by 0.25 percent. The increase is widely expected, and the interest in the language of the communication will be greater, as in recent weeks the members of the committee have suggested a change in attitude.

The global investors expect the Fed to switch to greater dependence of policy on incoming data, which, however, means slowing the pace of future increases. A slightly dovish tone should not significantly affect the USD, but the risks around the meeting are mutual, considering how much the market can exaggerate the details in the news.

The vote on the interest rate hike this week is the easiest part of the decision-making process faced by the FOMC. Economic activity in the US remains solid, ISM indicators suggest expansion at the fastest pace among major global economies. Consumer inflation remains above the Fed's inflation target. At least from this point of view, the Fed sees no reason to surprise the market with a pause in the tightening cycle (the probability of a hike this week is estimated at 70 percent). As in September, the Fed will raise the deposit rate by only 20 bp. This is a technical decision aimed at forcing the market to lower the federal reserve rate quotation closer to the center of the corridor (currently, the rate is closer to the upper limit).

The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ends on Wednesday, the 19th of December with the publication of the decision on interest rates at 07:00 pm GMT. The market consensus expects an increase in the target for the federal reserve rate by 25 bp to 2.25-2.50 percent. Together with the decision, the macroeconomic statement and forecasts will be published. The press conference of Fed chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled for 07:30 pm GMT.

Let's now take a look at the EUR/USD technical picture at the H4 time frame. The market is still moving higher towards the level of 1.1402, but this is not the key technical resistnace level. The key technical resistnace is seen at the level of 1.1442 and then at the level of 1.1471. As long as the price is trading below this levels, the market will be locked inside of the horizontal zone between the levels of 1.1471 - 1.1266. The nearest technical support is seen at the level of 1.1359 and then at 1.1336. The momentum remains positve and quite strong, but the market conditions are now entering the overbought levels.