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The British currency has been falling against all other major currencies from the last few weeks. This week it is likely to continue its downtrend. The Russian Ruble managed to regain momentum. Nevertheless, it is expected to edge lower.
The Services PMI showed an increase from 50.2 to 51.4. The July data signaled an improvement in the UK service sector with an increase in the business activity supported by new job places since October 2018. The pound sterling is falling against all other major currencies from the last few weeks. This week it may reverse or continue to decline. The Services PMI indicated growth from 50.2 to 51.4.
The bulk of the data, though, will be released on Friday, which will include trade, industrial and manufacturing output figures, as well as both monthly and quarterly GDP estimates. The economic forecast of the UK has ground to a halt in the three months to June, slowing from the previous 0.5% rate.
The event of this week concerns of a downturn, any boost to the pound would probably be short-lived. Unless either the UK or the EU exposes their preconditions to hold fresh Brexit talks, there's little chance that the pound sterling will show some strength.
On the other hand, the Bank of Russia has decided to cut the official cash. In terms of inflation, the increased value of 5.3% is very significant, although remains below the expectation of February- May period, and prices have risen by roughly 0.3-0.4% on a monthly basis. Annual inflation has fallen to 5.1% in May and came in at 5% exactly as at the beginning of last week. The main challenge for the Russian Central bank is whether it can control the inflation within the target range or not. The employment sector has shown an improvement, beating the expectation of 4.5% coming out at 4.4%. This week the retails sales data will be revealed. The reading is expected to be unchanged while the CPI is expected to grow from 0.0% to 0.3%.
As per the current scenario, the overall price action indicates that there is a possibility of volatility in this pair due to the Brexit issues in the UK. Any weaker-than-expected UK data will be favorable for Russian Rubble buyers.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW:
The price is currently residing below 80.00 area after strong rejection with a daily candle today which indicates the bearish trend in place. Therefore, it is going to continue to push lower advancing towards 78.50 and later towards 77.00 and 75.00 area in the coming days. The overall trend is bearish and non-volatile and as the price remains below 80.00 area with a daily close, the further bearish pressure is likely to remain unchanged.
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