15.02.201808:29 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The dollar has good reasons to turn up

As a result of Wednesday, the US dollar collapsed against all major currencies. What's very strange is this happened against the background of positive data on consumer inflation in the US which showed growth in monthly terms while annual values showed a continued growth rate.

According to the data presented, consumer inflation in annual terms remained at the same level of 2.1%. The forecast predicted it to fall to 1.9%. On a monthly basis, the index rose sharply by 0.5% against expectations of an increase of 0.3% and a revised upward of December's 0.2%. The figures of the basic consumer price index (CPI) were also pleasing. The annual value of the indicator remained at the previous level of 1.8%. It was assumed that it would drop to 1.7%. Last month, the base index added 0.3% while it was expected to increase by 0.2% as in December following the revision.

First, the dollar reacted to these positive figures with a noticeable increase in relation to all major currencies but then everything changed. It was actively sold against major currencies which in turn, supported prices for commodity and raw materials. Against this background, the share market in the United States has grown. And the traders clearly ignored the strong growth in yields of government bonds of the US Treasury. The yield on the two-year notes added more than 2% on the day's results, indicating a strong increase in expectations for growth rates in March. Futures on federal funds jumped to around 83.1%, indicating that interest rates will be raised by 0.25% at the March meeting.

In general, everything that happened in the US stock market that hit at the dollar rate, can be characterized as preparation for probable global sales. This will only intensify because of the nearest meeting of the Fed. Ultimately, the increase in yields of government bonds will have an impact on the stock market and it will begin to fall. An important signal to this is a sharp increase in the yield on Wednesday of 10-year Treasuries which grew above the 2.9% mark.

In the end, we continue to expect the dollar to turn up towards the Fed meeting next month.

Forecast of the day:

The EURUSD pair rose on the wave of a local weakening of the dollar. It is likely that against the backdrop of rising volatility and a prospective rate hike in the US, the pair will fall to 1.2345 if it overcomes the 1.2445 mark.

The GBPUSD pair also has a potential to decline to 1.3835 if it falls below the level of 1.3990.