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According to an analyst at Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), Sachin Gupta, the uncertainty surrounding trade relations between the United States and the Middle Kingdom, as well as the slowdown in the growth of the global economy can support the already "expensive" dollar over the coming months. Therefore, at the moment he prefers to maintain a neutral position in relation to the US currency.
"Where the dollar will go in the future will depend on whether the two largest economies in the world can reach an agreement. A truce will increase risk appetite and is likely to cause a weakening of the greenback in all directions, while the deterioration of relations can lead to the fact that investors will seek refuge in US currency. In this case, the dollar can rise in price even more", Gupta said.
A similar point of view is held by Erik Nelson, the currency strategist of Wells Fargo.
"The deterioration of statistical data in the US leaves it possible to remain neutral to the dollar over the next few months, given that the rest of the world is also experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. At the same time, mitigating the rhetoric of the Federal Reserve is leveled by the fact that other central banks also began to display dovish sentiments or lean toward a less hawkish position. If the dollar begins to decline, towards the end of the year, "he said.
Meanwhile, an economist at Goldman Sachs, Michael Cahill, believes that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues will be more and more sensitive to the bad news and ignore the positive, resulting in the likelihood of lower interest rates will rise and the dollar will fall.
In turn, experts of Bank of America Merrill Lynch believe that it is time to again sell the dollar against the yen.
"In the autumn, we recommended the sale of the dollar against the yen, and this made a good profit during the recent collapse that took place in December and early January. If the global stock market resumes decline in the coming weeks, the Japanese currency will regain the status of a safe-haven asset and rise in price. It is assumed that the short-term risks will not yet allow the Fed to tighten its position", they said.
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