22.02.201909:51 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR / USD trading system of "Regression Channels" on February 22. Inflation in the eurozone can bring the pair out of stupor

Revisione a lungo termine

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4 hour timeframe

Technical details:

Older linear regression channel: direction - sideways.

Younger linear regression channel: direction - down.

Moving average (20; smoothed) - sideways.

CCI: 47.7332

The EUR / USD currency pair cannot really overcome the Murray level of "2/8" at 1.1353, but it is was not able to go below the moving average line. On the last trading day of the week, the publication of the consumer price index in the eurozone in January is scheduled to be released. According to forecasts, this figure will be 1.4% y/y. Any value below the forecast can cause serious pressure on the euro currency since, at the moment, inflation is already well below the target value of the ECB of 2%. Also, today will be the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi. It is not yet known whether the topics of interest to the market such as Brexit will affect the monetary policy, however, such an event cannot be overlooked. From a technical point of view, we are forced to state a kind of flat formed in recent days. Fixing the pair above the Murray level of "2/8" does not allow the bulls to continue to grow but traders cannot get a foothold below the MA. Thus, market participants need a tangible impetus that will lead them out of a stupor. Perhaps, the inflation report will be just such a push. However, the chances of continuing to strengthen the euro currency are now little and the pair will not decline below 1.1230 either. Therefore, the instrument may continue to trade between these areas for some time.

Nearest support levels:

S1 - 1.1292

S2 - 1.1230

S3 - 1.1169

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 - 1.1353

R2 - 1.1414

R3 - 1.1475

Trading recommendations:

The EUR / USD currency pair has adjusted. Therefore, it is recommended to open long positions after the Heiken-Ashi indicator turns up with the target of 1.1414. The probability of the pair returning to the area below the MA has increased in recent days.

Short positions are recommended to open after the price fixes back below the moving average line. In this case, the trend in the instrument will change to downward with the first goal at the level of 1.1292.

In addition to the technical picture should also take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Explanations for illustrations:

The blue line of the unidirectional movement.

Unidirectional movement.

CCI - blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) is the blue line on the price chart.

Murray levels - multi-colored horizontal stripes.

Heiken Ashi is an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

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