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In recent days, a strong US dollar has set the tone for the foreign exchange market. The USD index reached its maximum this week for the first time in 23 months.
According to experts, the growth of the US currency against its main competitors in the G10 was made possible, thanks to a significant change in investor sentiment. Until recently, market participants were confident that the US economy would seriously slow down due to bad weather, as well as 35-day "shutdown" and an increase in borrowing costs. Hopes for an early end to trade conflicts and the restoration of China's GDP, it would seem that interest in risky assets returned but the disappointing statistics on the eurozone and the rest of the world forced investors to turn their eyes back to the "American".
It was because of the deterioration of the economic indicators of the eurozone that the Credit Agricole Bank was forced to abandon its forecast for the strengthening of the euro to $1.24 in the long term.
At the beginning of the year, we sincerely believed that further progress in the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing would help restore investors' appetite for risky assets while weakening the position of the greenback would reduce the attractiveness of this currency for investment. Even though the Fed's interest rate expectations have changed towards its decline and the risk attitude improved, the slowdown in the euro zone's economic growth and the ECB's softening position on monetary policy played against the euro", Credit Agricole representatives said.
The bank gave the recommendation to open a position to buy the single European currency on January 11, when it was trading at $1.1525. Since then, the euro fell by more than 3%. On the eve of the EUR / USD pair, it fell to an almost 2-year low.
The series of positive stats continues for the United States is supporting the dollar.
As it became known yesterday, the volume of orders for durable goods in the US expanded by 2.7% in March against a decline of 1.1% a month earlier and a forecast of increased by 0.7%.
Today, there will be a preliminary assessment of the US GDP for the first quarter. It is assumed that if the figure exceeds 2%, then we should expect further strengthening of the greenback and the fall of the EUR/USD pair to the support level of 1.1115.
Otherwise, you need to wait for the pair to rebound and the beginning of the upward correction, whose immediate goal will be the resistance level of 1.1190.
In addition, it is possible that more or less decent US GDP growth is already priced in, which is why the "buy on rumor, sell on facts" strategy may work, especially since players will want to take profits before the weekend.
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