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For the last trading day, the euro / dollar currency pair showed an indecently low volatility of 24 points, as a result of not having the best pullback attempt, which looked more like a banal stagnation. From the point of view of technical analysis, there is a tight retention of short positions. Unlike its fellow pound / dollar, we still do not have a strong oversold here, and the quotation is rather soberly working in the downward phase after the breakdown of the level of 1.1180. The current stagnation-rollback could serve as a regrouping of trading forces to strengthen the movement and achieve previously predicted coordinates. The news and news background did not have any statistics on the European Union and the United States. The only thing that can be singled out is the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which was on the night of May 20-21 (11:00 UTC+00.). The Fed Chairman gave a report regarding the growth of threats to the stability of the financial system, and, unfortunately, we did not hear anything new. Jerome Powell, like all other Fed officials, hasn't said anything concrete for more than one month, and their positions are more similar to "sitting on the fence." Yes, in his speech slip, these are not the best consequences for the economy of the United States from the conflict of interests of the United States and China. However, the Fed head constantly indicates that all the consequences are only in the future and can still be avoided. The topic of the refinancing rate was not raised in this report. At the same time, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, said yesterday in an interview with CNBC that he did not expect an early reduction in interest rates.
"I would say that I'm not looking for a quick reduction in rates, especially by September. "Something must happen to make this happen," said Bostic.
Today, in terms of the economic calendar , we do not have any statistics on the European Union. In the United States, we are waiting for statistics on sales in the secondary housing market for April, where they are waiting for an increase from 5.21M to 5.35M. The news is positive for the US currency, but traders are waiting for the main news regarding the publication of the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Commission on Open Market Operations, which will be released tomorrow at 5:00 UTC+00.
Further development
Analyzing the current trading chart, we see that the sellers have returned to the market and the early stagnation-rollback served to strengthen and break through the local minimum of yesterday. It is likely to assume that our earlier judgment (the previous review of May 20 ) remains in the market, the downward positions at this time look the most attractive. Predicted points are not changed by 1.1135 (local minimum of May 3) and 1.1112 main point.
Based on the available information, it's possible to decompose a number of variations, let's consider them:
- Positions for the purchase will be considered in case if a solid point of support is found in the coordinate 1.112 with the subsequent working out.
- Positions for sale are saved towards the pivot 1.1112.
Indicator Analysis
Analyzing a different sector of timeframes (TF ), we see that indicators of indicators in the short, intraday and medium term, and there is a downward interest, which corresponds to the interest of the market.
Weekly volatility / Measurement of volatility: Month; Quarter; Year
Measurement of volatility reflects the average daily fluctuation, based on monthly / quarterly / year.
(May 21 was based on the time of publication of the article.)
The current time volatility is 30 points. In the case of maintaining the inertial move and overcome the mark of 1.1135, we can finally see adequate volatility for the currency pair.
Key levels
Zones of resistance: 1.1180; 1.1180; 1,1300 **; 1.1440; 1.1550; 1.1650 *; 1.1720 **; 1.1850 **; 1.2100
Support areas: 1.1112; 1.1080 *; 1.1000 ***; 1,0850 **
* Periodic level
** Range Level
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