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Yesterday's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which I discussed in more detail in this review, as well as the publication of the minutes of the June meeting of the Committee, led to a decrease in the US dollar against a number of world currencies.
However, buyers of the dollar still have hope for the return of the bull market. All attention today will be focused on inflation data in the United States. After the publication of the report, it will become clear whether the Fed will reduce interest rates at the next meeting or whether such a decision will again be moved to a later date, or even postponed.
Weak inflation is now the main headache of the US Central Bank, as the Fed Chairman has repeatedly said yesterday. If the data is better than economists' forecasts – it will force buyers to return to the market, which will lead to a resumption of the downward trend in the EURUSD and GBPUSD pairs. If the weakness of inflation persists, as many economists predict, the growth in pairs will continue.
As for yesterday's minutes of the June Fed meeting, many members of the Open Market Committee noted more arguments in favor of lowering rates, but before changing monetary policy, Fed leaders need to see more evidence of weakness. The protocols also stated that many of the leaders of the Fed would support the reduction of rates in case of continued adverse conditions, as the uncertainty and risk for the economy continue to grow.
The Fed believes that the risks to the economy are shifted downwards, even though the labor market remained strong in June, as well as the growth of jobs.
The protocols also noted that one of the problems of weak economic growth is import duties, which can ultimately slow down consumer spending on durable goods.
As for the current technical picture of the EURUSD pair, the market is moving according to the bullish scenario. The breakthrough of a large resistance of 1.1280 will provide a new influx of buyers and will retain the upward corrective potential in the trading instrument. The nearest goal will be the levels of 1.1340, and 1.1310. Under the scenario of good inflation in the US and a decrease in risky assets, the support will be provided by the lows around 1.1240 and 1.1200.
The Canadian dollar also continued to strengthen against the US dollar, even after the Bank of Canada left the one-day interest rate target unchanged yesterday at 1.75%, saying that some degree of monetary easing remains appropriate.
The Bank of Canada is pleased that recent data indicate that the Canadian economy is returning to potential growth, but the prospects are overshadowed by continued trade tensions. Central Bank economists will continue to examine incoming economic data, focusing on the energy sector and trade conflicts.
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