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EUR/USD – 4H.
As seen on the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair posted a consolidation below the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180) and resumed the process of falling in the direction of the Fibo level of 100.0% (1.1107). Yesterday's economic reports out of Europe on GDP for the second quarter and industrial production in June left no hope of the euro on growth. While GDP is estimated at 1.1% y/y, which is certainly very little, but not worse than forecasts, industrial production lost 2.6% y/y, which is a record decline. In addition to the weak statistics in the European Union, the Brexit problem remains, which is most likely to be "No Deal", and recently, the issue with Italy has become increasingly acute. The problem with the Apennines began with Rome exceeding the budget deficit, which did not suit the EU rule. Later, this problem was "hushed up", but now there were serious disagreements between the parties in the Italian Parliament, the country is threatened with early parliamentary elections, as the main parties cannot agree among themselves. Now, on August 13, Parliament will convene to vote for a motion of no confidence in the government. It should also be noted that Italy runs the risk of following in the footsteps of Greece, having a huge public debt (132% of GDP), as well as 5 million people living below the poverty line. All this potentially carries serious risks for the entire eurozone.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of May 23, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for EUR/USD and trading recommendations:
The EUR/USD pair has completed the closing under the correction level of 76.4% (1.1180). I recommend continuing the sales of the euro/dollar with the target of 1.1107, with the stop-loss order above the level of 1.1180. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.1180 and stop-loss order under the level of 1.1107 if a rebound from the correction level of 100.0% is performed.
GBP/USD – 4H.
Bears on the pound/dollar pair decided to take a short break. This explains the lack of a new fall in the pound in recent days. On August 12, the MACD indicator formed a bullish divergence, which allows traders to expect some growth in the direction of the correction level of 127.2% (1.2180), but the last two days showed that the desire of the currency market to buy the pound is still there. Yesterday, the UK consumer price index for July seemed to be quite good (+2.1% y/y), however, as most analysts note, the acceleration of inflation at the rapidly falling rate of the national currency is not a positive moment. Prices are rising because the pound is falling. Today, August 15, we recommend paying attention to reports on retail sales in the UK and America. Even with good reports for the pound, I would not expect strong growth of this currency. According to forecasts, the increase in retail sales in the UK will be reduced to 2.6% y/y, although against the background of information about purchases by the British population of basic necessities in the case of Brexit "No Deal", the increase in retail sales should be much greater. Nevertheless, the pound, in any case, is difficult to count on growth, as most of the traders do not believe in the ability of Boris Johnson to withdraw from the EU with a deal. And any other Brexit option will either delay it for many months or years or will lead to a new change of government. Parliament is already talking about a vote of confidence in Johnson right now.
The Fibo grid is built on the extremes of January 3, 2019, and March 13, 2019.
GBP/USD – 1H.
As seen on the hourly chart, the pound/dollar pair is trading along with the correction level of 261.8%. For the analysis and forecast of the movement, it is better to consider a 4-hour chart now, as it shows the picture more clearly.
The Fibo grid is based on the extremes of June 18, 2019, and June 25, 2019.
Forecast for GBP/USD and trading recommendations:
The GBP/USD pair resumed the process of falling. Thus, I recommend selling the pair with the target of 1.1883, with the stop-loss order above the level of 261.8%, if the pair falls below the low bearish divergence. I recommend buying the pair with the target of 1.2437 and with the stop-loss order below the level of 127.2% (4-hour chart) if the closing is performed above the level of 1.2180.
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