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The published protocol of the last RBA meeting clearly demonstrates the complete dependence of the vast majority of the Central Banks of advanced economies on the actions of the American regulator.
In the presented document, the theme of the direct dependence of the prospects of the monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of Australia on the actions of the Federal Reserve in relation to its monetary policy is a red thread. The Bank has made it clear that it will "consider further easing of monetary policy, if necessary." Moreover, this "if" is directly dependent on how the situation with the trade war between the US and China develops. Here, however, it should be noted that the Australian economy largely depends on the state of demand in China for export from the "green continent".
In addition, it once again confirms the thesis that we voiced back in the spring of this year that trade confrontation could become the basis for rising inflation due to increased customs duties not only in the States or "under heaven", but also in countries more dependent on trade from the second. The RBA believes that there is a risk of higher inflation, which is equally combined with the thesis presented above.
On the wave of the published protocol of the Australian Central Bank, the local currency received limited support. Although earlier, the topic of strengthening the prospects for lowering interest rates was actively discussed in the market.
Hence, it can be argued that the Fed's monetary policy plans are the central reference point for almost all central banks, probably only with the exception of the ECB and the Central Bank of China. Given this state of affairs, we believe that before the performance of Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium at the end of this week. Activity in the foreign exchange market will remain low, as investors will expect a signal about whether the regulator will continue to lower interest rates or accept the decision to take a wait and see attitude.
Forecast of the day:
The EUR/USD pair is trading in range amid pending publication of the Fed protocol, which will take place tomorrow and Powell's performance in Jackson Hole. But at the same time, there is a high probability of the resumption of a fall in prices if the pair overcomes the level of 1.1070. In this case, it may fall to 1.1025.
The GBP/USD pair is trading above 1.2090 in the wake of Brexit's problems that leave Britain in no way. We believe that a decrease in the pair below the level of 1.2090 will cause its local decline by 1.2010 or even lower to 1.2000.
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