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On Friday, the markets are focused on the topic of US-Chinese trade negotiations again, which was perceived with optimism and manifested in the increase of demand for risky assets and a decrease in interest among market players to protective assets.
The resumption of the negotiation process between the United States and China somewhat revived the markets, but so far, it is not necessary to say that some progress has been achieved here, since there are too many contradictions in the positions of the parties.
On Thursday, US economic statistics were released which showed a slowdown in inflationary pressures against some expectations of an increase. Thus, the consumer price index in annual terms in September maintained a growth rate of 1.7% against the expectation of an increase of 1.8%. On a monthly basis, the indicator remained at zero level against a 0.1% increase in August and the same growth forecast. Meanwhile, the basic consumer price index slowed down to 0.1% from 0.3%, although it was expected to decline to 0.2%.
In fact, we are observing the previous expected slowdown in inflationary pressure amid a slowdown in the growth of the US economy. Despite the fact that the head of the Federal Reserve J. Powell said this week that the regulator will purchase government bonds and mortgage securities in order to support the national economy, and all this against the background of REPO operations to pump the local financial system, Powell himself and some of his colleagues Federal bank executives are still optimistic, informing the markets of the expected continued economic growth.
What is it - the official's desire to cling to the remnants of the former positive, which is gradually melting, or the direct conviction that the situation will be resolved?
In our opinion, both. Indeed, the US economy is still growing by inertia. Recent GDP data with growth dynamics of 2.0% indicate this. However, at the same time, this inertia in the current conditions of the trade wars of D. Trump's pulsating policy is gradually fading out. The Fed, in turn, hopes to stand in the unraveling chaos. The president's selfish position will force some US competitors to step back and give up market shares and profits, while others will not be allowed into the Holy of holies - the American consumer market.
Although we believe that this position is wrong and the States will not be able to sit out overseas. In the meantime, most likely, we will continue to observe the buildup of asset values amid high volatility in the markets. In the future, the Fed's actions will nevertheless exert significant pressure on the dollar, and the incoming dollar liquidity will rush to buy risky assets, pumping more and more financial bubbles.
Forecast of the day:
EUR/USD is gaining support amid market expectations for trade negotiations between the US and China. The price has approached the resistance line 1.1025. A breakthrough of which remains and continued optimism and consolidation above this level may lead to an increase in the price to 1.1070.
The NZD/USD pair was not able to break through the strong resistance level of 0.6325. It is consolidating below this level in anticipation of the outcome of US-Chinese negotiations. Any positivity in this regard will cause a breakthrough in the resistance level, while consolidating the price above this level may become the basis for a further increase in the pair to 0.6355, and then to 0.6400.
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