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On Tuesday, the euro once again went down to support the Fibonacci level of 123.6% (1.1074), after which it hit the resistance of the price channel line on the daily chart where it closed the day. Today is a very important day for the dollar (respectively, the euro) - economic data on employment and GDP are published and the Federal Reserve announces a decision on monetary policy. All events are closely related. The economic indicator of new jobs in the private sector and GDP for the 3rd quarter (coming out with a difference of 15 minutes) can already suggest the tone of Jerome Powell's comments after the decision on the rate. Investors are inclined to believe that today's, third consecutive rate cut will be the last in this short-term softening cycle, then the Fed may take a six-month pause. Good economic data will strengthen this expectation and we can see a neutral reaction of the markets immediately after the announcement of the FOMC. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change is expected to be 125 thousand in October against 135 thousand in September, the consensus forecast for GDP is 1.6%, which is below 2.0% in a preliminary estimate. But after the release of investment and export data on Monday, the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank lowered its own forecast from 1.8% to 1.7%, so today's release of 1.7%, remaining above the average of 1.6%, can greatly affect investors. and the Fed itself, which already knows the data. In addition, we do not exclude the option indicated in yesterday's review (see) to keep rates unchanged even if market expectations are 90%. In this case, Powell may "promise" a decline in December. Thus, with any development of events, we expect the euro to fall.
The first target will be a Fibonacci level of 123.6% at a price of 1.1074. Actually, this is not so much a goal as a signal level, overcoming of which opens the way to support the MACD line on daily 1.1025.
On a four-hour chart, the price is held by the line of balance, Marlin may have made a false exit into the growth zone. We are waiting for the development of events. The price exit above the MACD line (1.1139) during the development of an alternative scenario will make it possible for the price to rise to 1.1154 (Fibo level 110.0%), consolidating above it will allow the price to grow even higher, to 1.1215 (Fibo level 100.0%).
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