04.11.201907:25 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Overview of EUR/USD on November 4th. Forecast according to the "Regression Channels". The impeachment procedure is gaining momentum, Donald Trump is nervous

4-hour timeframe

Technical data:

The upper channel of linear regression: direction – sideways.

The lower channel of linear regression: direction – up.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – up.

CCI: 98.2860

Trading on Friday, November 1, clarified the current picture for the EUR/USD currency pair. Although there were plenty of news and macroeconomic reports on this day, traders did not manage to gain a foothold below the moving average or overcome the Murray level of "7/8" – 1.1169. Thus, the pair just remained between this level and the line. Also, the bears showed their reluctance to "engage" at the beginning of the new month, as the pair rebounded from the moving. Bulls continue to hold the initiative in their hands. As we said earlier, now it cannot be said that the strengthening of the European currency is justified. For example, on Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls turned out to be above forecasts, the average hourly wage on an annualized basis was fully consistent with them, and only Markit and ISM business activity indices frankly failed. Unfortunately, the most significant ISM index remained below the key mark of 50.0, thus, in the United States, a decline in industry is recorded, the same as it was previously recorded in many countries of the European Union and the entire European Union as a whole. Thus, Friday's macroeconomic data were quite controversial and could be interpreted in any direction. The growth of the euro still does not mean an improvement in the economic situation in Europe.

Meanwhile, the topic of the possible impeachment of Donald Trump a few weeks ago was put on pause. Headlines about the investigation disappeared from the media, and most Americans, as well as foreign exchange traders, believed that there would be no development. After all, never in the history of the United States has the President of the country left his post as a result of impeachment. Two fell under this procedure, but both were later acquitted by the Senate and only one President left office voluntarily. Thus, based on purely historical background, the probability that Congress will bring the investigation to an end and less than a year before the expiration of the presidency of Trump will impeach him, which will then be approved by the Senate, is extremely low. Moreover, it is worth understanding that all these actions can take several months. Donald Trump, too, will not sit idly by, will require a more detailed trial, new evidence, and the whole thing will drag on just before the next election. Thus, the greater significance of the whole story of impeachment lies in the lowering of Trump's political ratings in the run-up to the new presidential election in 2020. And ratings, most likely, to the delight of Democrats, will fall.

According to the latest information, the House of Representatives in the US Congress adopted a document that officially launches the impeachment procedure. 232 deputies voted "for", among which there is no Republican. The adoption of this resolution means that Congress will continue to investigate the activities of Donald Trump. Meanwhile, in the case of Trump's impeachment, witnesses began working in Congress who worked in a particular area related to Ukraine. It turned out a lot of important details. For example, the dismissal of the US Ambassador to Kyiv, Mary Jovanovich, was lobbied by former Republican Robert Livingston. He also testified before the committees of the House of Representatives, acting US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Asian Affairs Philip Reeker. He said that he did not know that, thanks to the conditions for assisting, Donald Trump could put pressure on Ukraine to investigate the activities of his main political rival for the presidency in the 2020 elections. Interrogations and the investigation continues.

And Donald Trump seems to have begun to lose his nerve, and he wrote on his Twitter: "The informant should come forward. Fake media know who he is, but, being an instrument of the Democratic Party, they don't want to reveal his identity, because you have to pay for it. Uncover the informant and put an end to the impeachment fraud."

For the US currency, such news has a negative color. After all, the procedure with impeachment was developed and did not remain on the shelves of the archives of the White House. Thus, the dollar may continue to fall, this option is supported by technical indicators. The upper channel of the linear regression has turned sideways, thus, none of the indicators signals in favor of a downward trend anymore. Overcoming the Murray level of "7/8" will open the way for the bulls to new heights.

Nearest support levels:

S1 – 1.1108

S2 – 1.1047

S3 – 1.0986

Nearest resistance levels:

R1 – 1.1169

R2 – 1.1230

R3 – 1.1292

Trading recommendations:

The euro/dollar pair is trying to continue its upward movement. Thus, today it is recommended to buy the pair with the target of Murray's level of "8/8" - 1.1230 if the bulls manage to overcome the level of 1.1169 (most likely, it will be possible, since there are still no signs of a correction). It is recommended to buy the US currency not earlier than the consolidation of bears below the moving average line with the first target of 1.1047.

In addition to the technical picture, fundamental data and the time of their release should also be taken into account.

Explanation of the illustrations:

The upper channel of linear regression – the blue line of the unidirectional movement.

The lower channel of linear regression – the purple line of the unidirectional movement.

CCI – the blue line in the indicator window.

The moving average (20; smoothed) – blue line on the price chart.

Support and resistance – red horizontal lines.

Heiken Ashi – an indicator that colors bars in blue or purple.

Possible variants of the price movement:

Red and green arrows.