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EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair continued to fall on the hourly timeframe yesterday, as we predicted. Since the Senkou Span B line has increased, now it is above the price, and there are no obstacles to move further down to the ascending long-term trend line. The future of the EUR/USD pair will be decided near this trend line and the support level of 1.0754 lies in the same place. The support area of 1.0740 - 1.0750, which we talked about in fundamental reviews, is also located near the trend line. Thus, several strong supports are concentrated in the 1.0740 - 1.0755 range. And if the pair manages to overcome them, it will begin to form a new downtrend. If it fails, it will rush up again.
As we have already said in recent fundamental reviews, the entire macroeconomic background is now ignored by market participants. There is enough news at the disposal of traders now, but all the macroeconomic indicators of the economies of the EU and the US are obviously dropping, contracting and slowing down that it has ceased to amaze traders who at the very beginning of the crisis (March 2020) stopped responding to them. We believe that traders will ignore all of today's reports again. Focus will be on the speeches of the European Central Bank Chairman Christine Lagarde and Vice Chairman Luis de Guindos. We believe both functionaries are not going to make speeches just in the middle of the working week, especially after yesterday's information about the German court's verdict on exceeding the powers of the European Central Bank, which could lead to the Bundesbank withdrawing from the asset purchase program to finance the economies of European countries held by the ECB. According to many experts, such a split in opinions regarding the distribution of financial flows between EU countries, as well as regarding the need to provide assistance to the southern countries and sources of raising funds for this assistance, could be the beginning of the end of the entire European Union. We believe that it is too early to draw such conclusions, however, the statements by De Guindos and Lagarde will obviously provide new food for thought tomorrow.
Based on the foregoing, we have two trading ideas for May 7:
1) During the penultimate trading day of the week, we expect a resumption of the downward movement with targets in the area of 1.0755 - 1.0740, in which we recommend taking profit on sell positions. If the pair easily passes the indicated area and the trend line, then short positions can be reopened or left open with the target support level of 1.0645. Potential to Take Profit in these cases are 45 and 160 points. A pullback to the Senkou Span B line is not excluded, with a rebound from which the pair can be shortened
2) The second option - bullish - involves overcoming the resistance area of 1.0880-1.0895 and the Kijun-sen line. In this case, the trend will become upward again in the short term, and we recommend buying the euro while aiming for the April 19 high at 1.0990. Potential to Take Profit while executing this scenario is 80 points.
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