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USD/JPY is trading below the 21 SMA and 200 EMA (114.78). Early in the European session, it rose as high as 115.05 supported by a stronger US dollar. The pair is rising again after JPY showed its strength when it reached the monthly low on Friday at 113.45.
Treasury bond yields had helped USD/JPY higher. The benchmark 10-year rate spiked to the highest level since January 2022 amid growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve would begin raising interest rates in March 2022.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) reiterated that it would maintain its expansive monetary policy after finishing the monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. At the press conference, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the central bank remains ready to further ease policy if necessary.
If Japan further expands its monetary policy, this could weaken the Japanese currency and we could expect JPY to get closer to the 116.64 price. In the medium term, it could go as high as 120.00 and break above this level.
According to the 1-hour chart, we see that the eagle indicator is showing an overbought signal and there is likely to be a correction in the next few hours towards the support of 4/8 Murray located at 114.25 or even 3/8 at 113.67.
The market sentiment report for today, January 17, shows that there are 57,53% of traders who are selling USD/JPY. This is a negative signal and this suggests a probability of a bullish move in the medium term towards the level of 116.00
If this figure increases, the yen could lose the strength of reaching the 113.65 level and will weaken towards 116.00 and even the psychological level of 120.00 against USD.
Support and Resistance Levels for January 17 - 18, 2022
Resistance (3) 115.51
Resistance (2) 115.23
Resistance (1) 114.79
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Support (1) 114.25
Support (2) 114.06
Support (3) 113.72
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Scenario 1
Timeframe H4
Recommendation: buy above
Entry Point 114.78
Take Profit 115.23 (7/8)
Stop Loss 114.31
Murray Levels 114.51 (5/8) 114.84 (6/8) 115.23 (7/8)
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Scenario 2
Timeframe H4
Recommendation: buy if rebound
Entry Point 114.06
Take Profit 114.45 and 115.23 (7/8)
Stop Loss 113.65
Murray Levels 113.28 (2/8) 113.67 (3/8) 114.06 (4/8)
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