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EUR/USD 15M
Both linear regression channels turned to the upside on the 15-minute timeframe, but the price reached the Senkou Span B line. This line has already been reached twice, which is clearly visible on the current timeframe. Therefore, a rebound from this line can provoke a new downward movement.
EUR/USD 1H
The euro/dollar pair rebounded three times from the support level of 1.2087 on the hourly timeframe on Thursday, which ultimately led to a new round of upward movement. The price has reached the Senkou Span B line, which, unlike the Kijun-sen line, remains quite strong at the moment. And right next to the Senkou Span B line is the downward trend line that was formed today, which supports bearish traders. Thus, we can immediately conclude that a rebound from the trend line or Senkou Span B line is very likely. Even if it is not there, getting the price to settle above the trend line will also be a strong signal to continue growth. In yesterday's article, we recommended buying the pair when it rebounds from the 1.2054 level or when the Senkou Span B line is broken. Neither one nor the other happened during the day, so long positions should not be opened. But traders could sell the pair on our recommendation. We offered to open sell-positions when the price rebounded from the critical line, which then passed the 1.2126 level, with targets at 1.2077 and 1.2054. Unfortunately, the price failed to reach the first target by falling short of only a few points. But in any case, traders could not get any losses on this deal.
COT report
The EUR/USD pair fell by 80 points during the last reporting week (January 12-18). As we mentioned above, the pair began to correct globally, however, the upward trend was not canceled. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) reports show just that. The previous COT report showed a sharp increase in net positions of the "non-commercial" group, the latest COT report also showed that non-commercial traders are increasing their buy contracts (longs). If a week earlier the net position increased due to a reduction in the number of sales contracts (shorts), now the non-commercial group has opened 8,200 new buy contracts and only 1.4 thousand sales contracts. Thus, the net position has grown again, by almost 7,000 contracts. This means that the mood of the most important group of traders continues to become more bullish. Indicators testify to the same. The first indicator shows that the red and green lines are moving away from each other, which indicates that the trend (in our case, the upward trend) is maintained. The second indicator shows the net position of non-commercial traders, but on a chart. That is, we can clearly see how they are becoming more bullish. From above, we can conclude that the uptrend will continue with a high degree of probability. We drew the opposite conclusion a couple of months ago, but the bears turned out to be so weak that they could not start a new trend.
No interesting events or news in the European Union on Thursday. Markets were focused on the US GDP report for the fourth quarter. We have repeatedly steered your attention on the importance of this indicator. As we have already said, the US economy is recovering at a fairly high pace, but it is still far from the level of recovery of the European economy, which simply shrank less at the height of the first wave of the pandemic. Therefore, even +4.2% in the fourth quarter would not be enough. However, in this case, the US dollar could receive local market support. However, in reality, US GDP grew by 4.0% in quarterly terms. Therefore, it is absolutely normal for the dollar to fall today. We do not even pay attention to such indicators as inflation in Germany, as in general, the markets continue to ignore more than 90% of macroeconomic statistics.
No major events planned in the European Union on Friday, just a few minor reports from the United States, which are unlikely to arouse interest among market participants. More or less significant is the report on changes in the levels of income and spending of Americans. The rest are purely for statistics. Thus, we believe that the impact of the foundation and macroeconomics on the pair's movement today will be minimal.
We have two trading ideas for January 29:
1) Buyers have let go of the initiative. We now have a downward trend. So we would recommend buying the pair only if the downward trend line is broken with targets at the resistance levels 1.2190 and 1.2223. Take Profit in these cases can range from 30 to 60 points.
2) Bears finally stepped up and managed to pull down the pair but their music can play for a very short time. The pair may break the trend line in the near future. However, if there is a clear rebound from the Senkou Span B line or the trend line, we recommend selling the pair again while aiming for support levels 1.2087 and 1.2058. Take Profit in this case can range from 40 to 70 points.
Forecast and trading signals for GBP/USD
Explanations for illustrations:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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