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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair also traded in an extremely boring manner on Friday, April 2. Volatility for the pound/dollar pair was extremely weak. Therefore, if in the euro's case, the price was relatively far from the lines and levels, then in the pound's case, the price was close to them, therefore, during the day, it crossed them or bounced off them several times due to the sideways movement. All this formally led to forming signals that should not have been worked out due to the complete absence of movement in the market. But let's start to understand the situation in order. At the European trading session, the price dropped to the Senkou Span B line and began to move along it, settling either higher or lower by 5 points. Of course, such a consolidation can hardly be considered a signal, especially in combination with the low volatility. The movements started to be a little more interesting in the US session, and even two signals were formed, which can be considered strong. The price rebounded again from the Senkou Span B line, and then from the 1.3812 level. All this happened within ten minutes, when the US Nonfarm report was published. And so it was in a flat all day, it was unreasonable to open positions right when important reports were released. Although formally traders could do it. Since the report was in favor of the US dollar, it was necessary to trade for short positions, therefore, it was possible to work out the rebound from the Senkou Span B line. But this signal would not have brought more than 10 points in profit. At the end of the day and the trading week, the price rebounded off the Senkou Span B line again, but of course, it was no longer necessary to open positions an hour before the market closed.
GBP/USD 1H
On the hourly timeframe, you can see that the pound/dollar pair bounced off both the 1.3846 and 1.3812 levels, and all movements were mostly sideways. At the same time, the upward trend is maintained, as the upward trend line remains relevant. And so buy signals are more important now. Since the pair is now in the area of a large accumulation of various lines and levels, and in addition, it is also in a flat, then we need to wait for events to develop in order to clear things up a bit. No important reports in the UK. Meanwhile, we only have the ISM index in America, and it is not certain whether it will be worked out. In general, we continue to recommend trading from important levels and lines, when rebounding from them and surpassing them. However, at the end of Friday, the price remains stuck between 1.3812 and 1.3846, so it would be good for the pair to leave this channel. Although rebounds from these levels can also be used to open corresponding positions. As before, you are advised to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 15-20 points in the right direction. The nearest level/line is always used as targets (exceptions - if the target is too close to the signal).
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair fell by only 37 points during the last reporting week (March 16-22). However, this fall is as conditional as the previous week's growth. The pair travels around 37 points in an hour. Thus, it is impossible to say that the pair sharply dropped over the reporting week. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) report talks about quite serious changes. Non-commercial traders closed 3,200 buy contracts (longs) and opened 4,400 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position for the pound immediately decreased by 7,600, which is quite a lot and reflects that the bullish mood has significantly weakened among professional traders. Thus, despite the fact that the pound shows a not so strong fall (which is clearly seen in the chart), while the COT reports that more eloquently signal the end of the upward trend. However, an assumption should also be made here. The green and red lines of the first indicator have often changed the direction of movement over the past 6-8 months, so here it just cannot be said that the end of the upward trend has been brewing for a long time. In general, the pound's situation is more complicated and confusing than the euro's. Considering the fact that much will depend on the US economy, both the euro and the pound can resume growth.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the "non-commercial" group.
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