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EUR/USD 5M
The EUR/USD pair traded quite varied on April 6. If the trend was traditionally absent at night, then an outright flat began at the European trading session, and an upward movement resumed at the US one. Take note that we did not receive any important macroeconomic report yesterday. Thus, there is no point in trying to look for a connection between yesterday's movements and macroeconomics. The only more or less interesting report was the one on unemployment in the European Union, which came out worse than forecasts, as it predicted a reduction to 8.1%. However, in any case, this report came out during the European trading session, where, as we have already found out, there were no sharp reversals and strong movements. The upward movement resumed in the afternoon, which fully meets our expectations. Recall that we are waiting for a new upward trend in the euro based on the oversaturation of the American economy with trillions of US dollars under stimulus programs from the government. Thus, without really even correcting after the previous day, the bulls began to attack again. As for the signals, today traders could hit a few false ones. As we have already said, a flat reigned in the first half of the day, which was evidenced, in particular, by the moving average line. The price overcame it, the levels 1.1805 and 1.1801 every half hour or hour, which ultimately allowed us to make a conclusion about the horizontal channel, which is marked in the illustration. A buy signal was generated as the price surpassed the Senkou Span B line at the beginning of the US trading session. This signal was already strong, as the price immediately continued to rise, easily surpassing 1.1836, and then 1.1743 and to this moment continues to move up. Thus, on this signal, traders could earn up to 30 points.
EUR/USD 1H
We see that the EUR/USD pair tried to settle below the 1.1801 level several times on the hourly timeframe, but the bears did not succeed. As a result, an upward movement began and three immediate resistances were overcome. At the moment, an upward trend has been formed for the pair, since the downward trend line has been overcome. The European Union will publish the PMI for the services sector on Wednesday, which is likely to remain below the 50.0 level and is unlikely to cause a reaction from the markets. The same goes for the evening release of the Federal Reserve minutes. This event that is well known rarely provokes at least some movement in the market. In general, we still recommend trading from important levels and lines that are plotted on the hourly timeframe. The nearest important levels are 1.1836 and 1.1882, as well as the Senkou Span B line (1.1825). Signals can be rebounds and once levels and lines are surpassed. Do not forget about placing a Stop Loss order at breakeven if the price moves 15-20 points in the right direction. This will protect you against possible losses if the signal turns out to be false. There is no upward trend line yet, so you can trade in both directions. For example, a rebound from 1.1882 or 1.1911 levels is very likely.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the GBP/USD pair.
COT report
Recall that the EUR/USD pair fell by 170 points during the last reporting week (March 23-29). This is already quite a significant drop and we have been recording it for several consecutive weeks. The new Commitment of Traders (COT) report was quite eloquent. A group of non-commercial traders opened 25,000 contracts for shorts and 34 contracts for longs during the reporting week. This means that the net position has decreased by another 25,000, and the bullish mood of the major players continues to weaken. At the moment, the total number of Buy-contracts (longs) that professional players opened is at 195,500, and Sell-contracts (shorts) at 136,000. Although as early as January 5, 2021, that is, three months ago, the numbers were as follows: 226,000 - 82,000. That is, in the three months of the new year, non-commercial traders have increased more than 50,000 contracts for the sale and closed about 30,0000 contracts for the purchase. As the trend changed into a downward trend. According to COT reports, we expected the trend to end last September. The chart clearly shows why. The red and green lines of the first indicator moved away from each other as much as possible in September 2020, which were the harbingers of a trend reversal. However, the dollar's depreciation due to the exorbitant trillions of dollars that was poured into the American economy caused a new rise in the euro, which is again clearly seen in the chart. The net position of non-commercial traders (the second indicator) has been falling since the same September-2020, while the euro's quotes continued to grow at the same time, and these two facts contradict each other. Thus, both the technique in global terms and the COT report are now in favor of continuing the downward movement. The key level is 1.1691.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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