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Yesterday's economic calendar had quite a lot of events, but the market reaction followed at the same time.
Here's the details of the economic calendar on April 22:
The day started with the European Central Bank (ECB) scheduled meeting, where the regulator decided to keep the interest rate at a record low zero level. Such a decision, as well as leaving the parameters of the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program) asset purchase program unchanged, did not shock traders.
During a press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that rejecting the stimulus measures is early. She also stated that the ECB will continue to implement the PEPP asset purchase program, and at a much higher rate than in the first months of the year.
To simply put it, the regulator does not plan to raise the interest rate in the near future. Their monetary policy program also remains unchanged, which became a signal for speculators to sell the Euro currency.
In turn, data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States were published simultaneously with the press conference, where traders were expecting a surprise.
Based on forecasts, the volume of initial applications for benefits was supposed to grow from 586 thousand to 617 thousand, but in reality, the volume sharply declined to 547 thousand. Considering the current indicators, we are very much approaching the pre-crisis level.
The volume of repeated applications for benefits also fell from 3 708 thousand to 3 674 thousand, which is slightly below the forecast, but still a decline.
It should be noted that applications reflect the number of currently unemployed citizens receiving unemployment benefits. This indicator reflects the state of the labor market, where the growth of the indicator negatively affects the level of consumption and economic growth.
In simple words:
An increase in the number of applications leads to a weakening of the national currency, while a decrease leads to growth.
Analysis of trading charts on April 22:
Yesterday, the EUR/USD pair managed to show local activity, but it was still limited by the borders of the amplitude 1.2000/1.2050, with an error of 20 points.
The trading recommendation on April 22 considered the coordinates 1.1990 (sell) and 1.2080 (buy) as the starting point for the upcoming acceleration. However, the quote did not affect the values at the end of the day.
Meanwhile, the British currency showed a fairly strong downward activity yesterday, which resulted in the pound's decline by more than 110 points.
The trading recommendation on April 22 considered the subsequent weakening of the pound's value if the price is held below the level of 1.3900. The first forecast indicator, represented by the 1.3850 mark, was executed during the last day. As a result, traders earned 50 points, which is $ 50 with a transaction volume of 1 Instalot.
Trading recommendations of EUR/USD and GBP/USD on April 23, 2021
Today, the United Kingdom already published its retail sales data, which reflected not just growth, but an acceleration of + 7.2% in annual terms, considering the fact that the previous data was negative -3.6 %
The retail sales report is issued by the UK Office for National Statistics and reflects the total number of receipts for purchases in retail stores. Changes in retail sales are generally considered an indicator of consumer spending. The growth of the indicator should lead to the strengthening of the national currency – GBP.
In our case, the news was worked out by traders, but only locally.
The next news was the publication of Britain's business activity data, where there is an increase in the service sector index from 56.3 points to 60.1 points. As for the manufacturing sector, the index is rising from 58.9 points to 60.7 points.
This is positive data, but the market ignores them.
During the US trading session, the United States will release its business activity data, where a widespread growth of indices can be expected.
The indices will be published at 13:45 Universal time.
Looking at the trading chart of EUR/USD, a fairly rapid upward trend was seen during the start of the European session, but the quote is still within the deviation from the psychological level.
The trading recommendation regarding the signal coordinates remains the same: 1.1990 is a sell signal in the direction of 1.1950. In turn, the breakdown of the local high 1.2080 of the ascending cycle can lead to a movement towards the 1.2130-1.2150 range.
As for the trading chart of GBP/USD, it shows that the coordinates of 1.3825 are used as a periodic pivot point, and a pullback has occurred relative to it. We can assume that the previously set downward cycle from the psychological level of 1.4000 is still relevant among traders, but the next sell positions will be considered only after the price has been kept below the level of 1.3820, in the direction of 1.3750.
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