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To open long positions on EURUSD, you need to:
In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the level of 1.2141 and recommended that you decide on entering the market from it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and talk about what happened and what should have been done. The bears are trying to break below the level of 1.2141. However, the bulls quickly form a false breakout and take this area under their control. Then there is a reverse test of this level from top to bottom, which forms a signal to open long positions in continuing the bullish trend market. As a result, there is a rapid movement to the resistance area of 1.2181, which we did not reach quite a bit. The upward movement was more than 30 points.
As long as the trade is above the support of 1.2141, the demand for the euro will remain. Given that the technical levels did not change in the first half of the day, the scenario for the US session and the strategy also remained the same. The task of buyers is to break through the resistance of 1.2181, which in the first half of the day did not reach quite a bit. You can open long positions only after a breakout and a test of this level from top to bottom. But before doing this, it is necessary to exclude the formation of a divergence on the MACD indicator, which is now being formed, limiting the upward potential of the pair. A break of 1.2181 will open a direct road to the highs of 1.2239 and 1.2294, where I recommend taking the profits. In the scenario of a repeated decline of the euro to the support area of 1.2141, it is possible to open long positions only if a false breakout is formed, similar to the one we saw today in the first half of the day. If there is no activity on the part of the bulls, it is best to postpone long positions immediately for a rebound from the low of 1.2104 in the expectation of an upward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
To open short positions on EURUSD, you need to:
The bears tried, but it didn't work out. It is not surprising that after Friday's news, euro buyers try to be active with every good decline in the pair. Given that the fundamental data today can not be counted on in the second half of the day, only the formation of a false breakdown in the area of 1.2181, together with the divergence on the MACD indicator, will form a signal to open short positions, which will again push EUR/USD into the support area of 1.2141. Most likely, the struggle will continue for this level, and the buyers will not give it up. Fixing below this range with a reverse test of it from the bottom up will lead to the formation of a signal to open short positions to return to the minimum of 1.2104, where I recommend fixing the profits. There are also moving averages that play on the side of euro buyers. If we do not see any bear activity in the resistance area of 1.2181, and the bullish trend in EUR/USD continues further: I recommend postponing short positions until the resistance is updated at 1.2239, or sell the euro immediately to rebound even further – from the maximum of 1.2294 in the expectation of a downward correction of 15-20 points within the day.
Let me remind you that the COT report (Commitment of Traders) for April 27 showed an increase in both short and long positions, but the latter turned out to be more, which led to an increase in the overall non-commercial position. It suggests that active purchases of the euro by the players continue, and you can bet on the further strengthening of the pair after a downward correction. The Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates and monetary policy did not significantly affect the US dollar, as did the next programs proposed by US President Joe Biden to stimulate economic growth in the near future through changes in the tax system. Given that the Fed will continue to stick to the same course even despite the sharp economic jump, the demand for risky assets will most likely continue after the decline of the EUR/USD pair earlier this month. The COT report shows that long non-profit positions jumped sharply from 197,137 to the level of 200,415.
In contrast, short non-profit positions rose from 116,329 to the level of 119,448, indicating an influx of new buyers in the expectation of continued growth of the euro. The more the euro is adjusted downwards at the beginning of this month, the stronger the demand will be. As a result, the total non-commercial net position rose sharply from the level of 80,808 to the level of 80,967. The weekly closing price continued its growth to 1.20795 from the level of 1.2042 a week earlier.
Signals of indicators:
Moving averages
Trading is conducted above 30 and 50 daily moving averages, which indicates that the market remains under the control of buyers.
Note: The period and prices of the moving averages are considered by the author on the hourly chart H1 and differ from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily chart D1.
Bollinger Bands
A break of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2170 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. A break of the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.2140 will increase the pressure on the pair.
Description of indicators
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