09.06.202216:46 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Is USD/JPY Swing Higher Over?

The USD/JPY pair is trading in the green at 133.98 at the time of writing on the H4 chart. After its strong leg higher, the price retreated a little but the bias remains bullish. The currency pair remains bullish as USD is boosted by the DXY's rally while the Yen is weakened by the Japanese Yen Futures' drop.

Fundamentally, the US Unemployment Claims came in worse than expected. The economic indicator was reported at 229K versus the estimate of 205K and compared to 202K in the previous period. On the other hand, Japan's Prelim Machine Tool Orders came in at 23.7% while the M2 Money Stock rose by 3.2% compared to the 3.6% forecasted. Tomorrow, the US inflation data could be decisive.

USD/JPY Temporary Retreat

USD/JPY found resistance at the ascending pitchfork's upper median line (uml). It has registered only false breakouts above this dynamic resistance and now it has retreated. In the short term, it remains trapped between 133.60 and 134.47.

The bias remains bullish as long as it stays above 133.60 and above the uptrend line. Still, it remains to see how it will react after reaching the near-term upside obstacles.

USD/JPY Forecast

A new higher high, a valid breakout above the 134.47 and through the upper median line (uml) could activate further growth. The current range could represent a bullish continuation pattern. This scenario could bring new long opportunities.

Only dropping and stabilizing below the uptrend line and below 133.60 could signal a downside movement and could invalidate an upside continuation.