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It is difficult to imagine a currency in the market that is more time-dependent than the British pound. The dates of the referendums on the independence of Scotland, the exit from the EU, the parliamentary elections, and the signing of the Brexit agreement, strongly influenced the pound's exchange rate that other factors were forced to disappear. The next X-day is June 21. In particular, the government promised to fully open the economy and end the lockdown. However, rumors that this will not happen force the GBP/USD bulls to postpone plans to restore the upward trend.
Apparently, Britain's economy is flourishing after it lifted lockdowns. Jon Cunliffe, Bank of England MPC member, said that the UK is experiencing a strong economic recovery after the restrictions were lifted, with pubs and restaurants recovering faster than retail. Indeed, business activity in the UK services sector grew at the fastest pace in the 24-year history of accounting, allowing the composite PMI to mark a record increase to 62.9.
Another BoE member, Gertjan Vlieghe, also talks about raising the repo rate in 2022 if the situation in the UK labor market continues to improve rapidly. Now, British companies are hiring staff at the fastest pace since the early 1990s. They are forced to raise wages to lure new employees since the problem of labor shortages that arose due to Brexit has been worsened by the pandemic. The country is on the verge of accelerating inflation, which increases the risks of normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of England and the strengthening of the pound.
Even Britain's foreign economic activity is beginning to revive: in March, exports of goods to the EU increased by 8.6%, while imports also did so by 4.5%, which indicates that the January decline was just an initial shock, rather than a new reality after Brexit.
Dynamics of indicators of foreign economic activity of Britain:
It may seem that after such a flow of positivity, the monetary unit has only one path – upward direction. Nevertheless, GBP/USD quotes have been stuck in the trading range of 1.409-1.422 since mid-May and it looks like they are not going to leave there. One of the reasons for this is the US dollar's strengthening, which endured the disappointing employment statistics with dignity and is able to strengthen on expectations of an acceleration in consumer prices from 4.2% to 4.7% and core inflation from 3% to 3.4% in May. However, it is not necessary to blame the "bulls" for the analyzed pair of the USD for all the troubles.
We need to focus on the announcement of the end of lockdown, that is, on June 21st. Boris Johnson's government would like to see the Britain economy fully open that day, but scientists are giving warning due to the spread of the Indian strain of COVID-19 in the country, and the Ministry of Health says it is too early to talk about it.
Technically, the breakdown of the support level of 1.409 could be the basis for short-term sales of GBP/USD, but one should not get carried away with them. The inability of the bears to keep the pair's quotes below this level or rebounds from the supports at 1.4035, 1.399, and 1.393 will serve as signals for the formation of longs.
The daily chart of the GBP/USD pair:
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