15.06.202113:40 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Pound sterling under pressure from sellers

How well it all started, the vaccination program of the UK population could be envied by many countries, but it also failed. According to the reports, Britain failed to achieve the set goals for the complete lifting of restrictive measures at the end of June. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has pushed back his plan to lift the restrictions for another four weeks as the coronavirus is still actively developing domestically, threatening to undermine vaccination efforts.

Johnson's advisers demonstrated a model of a possible scenario of new infections, where hospitalization can reach a level similar to the first wave from the spring of 2020. Following the reports of possible scenarios, the Prime Minister outlined possible risks and adjustments to the roadmap for easing/removing restrictive measures during his speech on June 14.

"The objective of this short delay is to use these valuable, crucial weeks to save thousands of lives — lives that would otherwise be lost, I'm afraid — by vaccinating millions more people as fast as we can," said Boris Johnson.

The revised lockdown timetable is expected to be put to a vote in the British parliament on Wednesday, and Johnson is likely to face the wrath of fellow Conservatives for backing away from a previously agreed roadmap.

The government also said it would not provide financial support to the business, despite the delay.

Refusing to provide financial assistance is unfair, unconscionable, and unacceptable, Tory MP Bob Neill said in the House of Commons late on Monday.

In simple terms, the delay in lifting restrictive measures will fall on the shoulders of the business, and this will lead to new bankruptcies.

Many businessmen and investors have already given up since 2021 will no longer provide the required amount of profit to at least partially cover the accumulated losses.

What is happening on the market in terms of the technical picture?

The pound sterling has been following the wide side channel of 1.4100/1.4245 for almost a month, consistently working out the set boundaries. This "monster" in the form of a range attracted so much attention that there was a tight connection between speculators and the set levels, which eventually leads to regular rebounds, on which many managed to earn a lot.

Moving along a regular trajectory, and even in the sideways direction, is fine, but any tech guy will tell you that this only exacerbates the situation in the market.

In simple terms, sooner or later speculators will not stay in the set range and there will be a price jump, which will lead to an inertial price movement. Therefore, when working on a price rebound, traders always work out the tactics of a breakdown, since the main income will arise just at this very moment.

In this case, traders have been observing the concentration of quotes in the lower part of the side channel for more than 10 trading days, as if indicating the possibility of a downward move.

The signal level is the 1.4080 coordinate, where traders are waiting for consolidation below on a four-hour period, which will increase the chances of a downward price development in the direction of 1.4000-1.3950.

As you may have guessed, the technical picture indicates a downward development due to the concentration of trading forces within the lower border, but at the same time, the information background regarding the postponement of the lifting of restrictive measures is also on the side of sellers.

What is happening on the chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?

Analyzing different time sectors, we see that technical instruments on the minute, hourly and daily periods have a sell signal due to the price movement below the signal level 1.4080, which increases the chances of a downward development.

In terms of market dynamics, there is an increase in the coefficient of speculative transactions, which leads to an increase in volatility, but not yet at full scale. It is quite possible that soon we will return to the level of 80-110 points per day.