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There have been no significant volatility drivers on the cryptocurrency market for over a month, apart from the Chinese ban. Therefore, globally, nothing changes from day to day, and each subsequent daily candle clearly confirms the medium-term forecast.
I will repeat this once again (the market situation leaves no other choice): the price is working out a wide sideways range between the support level at 31,082.82 (red dotted line) and resistance at 41,980.24.
In fact, someone is driving the price in the range of $30,000 - $40,000 per coin. The question is why? It is very likely that a major player, one or more, is gaining position, expecting further growth. And since the sidewall is wide, this position is probably large, it is only possible to get it at more or less favorable prices.
Hence, there is still a conclusion about the belief of large market participants in cryptocurrency, a phase of technical consolidation of the market, supported by a temporary lull.
What happens after the Chinese ban? Everyone who got scared, everyone who bought high with a shoulder, left the market. For those who are stronger and with more capital, the price below 30,000 was not allowed. We have seen this many times on unsuccessful attempts to break through the level of 31,082.82 (red dotted line).
Meanwhile, the "great mining migration" is currently happening worldwide. Analytical platform Glassnode released a fresh report today showing that the Bitcoin hash rate has stabilized after 10 consecutive days of price declines. The worst impact of China's recent crackdown on mining could go away, Glassnode said.
Also, according to Glassnode, the average Bitcoin hash rate (over a 7-day period) on Tuesday (June 29, 2021) was 90.6 EH/s, which is slightly higher than Monday (June 28, 2021), equal to 90.5 EH/s. But this data is still half the peak level reached in mid-May.
There is also information that the revenue from Bitcoin and ether mining has fallen by almost 50% over the past month. The decrease in the hash rate of the network of the two leading cryptocurrencies subsequently led to a decrease in the profitability of the miner, as the block generation time increased.
China's crackdown on crypto mining is seen by many analysts as a welcome move and believes it will help the Bitcoin network become more decentralized. Microstrategy CEO Michael Saylor called China's actions a trillion-dollar mistake.
Probably, taking advantage of this situation, the calm and the low price, the big players continue to gain position. The technical picture allows us to draw two conclusions: the lateral borders 30,000 - 40,000 are strong enough, and over time, one of them will be broken.
Everything inside the corridor looks very "torn". Local levels are stitched in all directions, moreover, "where you don't poke, there is a level." As we can see, it is risky to trade inside the wide side. If you trade with small stops, they will often be wiped out. And if strong highs-lows of the corridor are taken out, they will be huge and the profit will not be worth the risk.
Therefore, I think that it is best to trade Bitcoin now with a rebound from the sideways borders at 31,082.82 - 41,980.24 or a breakout, but it is not known when it will happen. Yes, it is a long time to wait for the entry point, but it is not as risky as trying to "pinch" a small profit within this range.
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