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Euro continued to rise on Wednesday amid disputes over when the European Central Bank will cut its bond purchases. Obviously, the improvements seen in many sectors rekindled the debate about how it is time to taper stimulus.
In fact, many policymakers are now keen on scaling back measures, which is very different from their stance during the last meeting, when the whole ECB was unanimous in taking them to revitalize the economy. An example was the discussion between Robert Holzmann and Klaas Knot yesterday, during which they indicated that stimulus must be eased in order for inflation to reach the target rate.
But there are still those who believe that the surge seen right now is temporary, unless the super-soft policy is allowed to drag on too long. Such could lead to the situation getting out of control, so the ECB should be more cautious when deciding over support measures.
The next meeting of the Governing Council will take place next week, during which it is likely that more cautious members will bring up the instability of economic recovery, as well as the current risks associated with the highly contagious Delta variant.
With regards to macro statistics, Germany reported yesterday that retail sales in July fell much more than expected, having seen a massive 5.1% decline month-over-month, which completely erased the 4.5% growth in June. The main reason was the sharp drop in consumer spending, which occurred because of fears over the Delta strain. Year-on-year data also slipped by 0.3% because sales of food, beverages and tobacco fell 1%.
Manufacturing PMI also fell to a six-month low in August, amounting to only 61.4 points. Nevertheless, the value is still fairly high and indicates a steady recovery in activity.
But compared to other EU countries, Germany and France recorded the weakest growth, while Italy and Spain saw the fastest.
On the bright side, the unemployment rate in the Euro area fell to 7.6% in July, which is in line with the forecasts. The number of people without jobs apparently decreased by 350,000 month-over-month and fell 1.336 million year-on-year.
US also saw a rise in employment, as ADP reported that jobs in the private sector grew by 374,000 in August. However, there is a chance that the indicator will slow in the coming months because of the Delta strain.
But if job growth remains strong, it is likely that the Federal Reserve will taper its bond purchase program earlier than scheduled.
On Friday, the US Department of Labor will publish its own report on employment, which is expected to show a 750,000 increase in August. The unemployment rate is also projected to fall to 5.2%.
As for manufacturing activity, the ISM recently reported that the pace of growth remained fairly high in August, thanks to the sharp increase in new orders, which rose to 66.7 points. The index even reached a value of 59.9 points, which was a surprise to many because they expected a decline to 58.6 points.
Going back to EUR/USD, a lot now depends on 1.1845 because pushing the quote above it will most likely provoke a larger jump towards 1.1870 and the 19th figure. But if the quote drops below the level, euro will plunge to 1.1820, and then to 1.1790 and 1.1760.
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