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GBP/USD 5M
The GBP/USD pair finally moved as expected on September 9. First, the movement was strong enough. Secondly, it was in trend. And this despite the fact that there were no important macroeconomic events either in the UK or in the US on Thursday. However, the markets found a reason to buy the British currency. In recent days, we said that despite the price taking below the rising channel, we do not expect the downward movement to continue. At the moment, our hypothesis is confirmed. Quotes of the pound/dollar pair have almost returned to their local high around the level of 1.3886. The Senkou Span B line on the 4-hour timeframe was never overcome, so the probability of resuming the upward trend is high. In the UK, it should be noted, in recent days there was still news that could force the markets to trade more actively. For example, yesterday it became known that the government of Boris Johnson is going to raise taxes. If this happens, then they will become the highest in the history of Britain. Also the other day there were speeches by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey and some other members of the Monetary Committee. But all this news does not seem to be unambiguously involved in the pound's growth yesterday. During the past day, three trading signals were generated for the pair. Unfortunately, the upward movement was not caught from the very beginning. The first signal was formed when the price crossed the Senkou Span B line and the extremum levels of 1.3785 and 1.3794. This is the place where you should have bought the pair. Later the quotes crossed the Kijun-sen line, bounced off it and continued to move upward. Since the nearest target level of 1.3886 was not reached, the deal should have been manually closed in the late afternoon. The profit on it was about 50 points. This is a great result.
Overview of the EUR/USD pair. September 10. The ECB meeting turned out to be completely passable.
Overview of the GBP/USD pair. September 10. The pound started flying again, but is not picking up speed yet. Fed members did not return the bearish mood to the market.
GBP/USD 1H
The GBP/USD pair crossed the rising channel on the hourly timeframe, but has already resumed the upward movement, unable to really overcome the Senkou Span B line. Thus, we believe that the upward movement will continue and the bulls will be able to overcome the level of 1.3886. Recall that globally, we expect a resumption of the global upward trend. We continue to draw the attention of traders to the most important levels: 1.3677, 1.3732, 1.3785 - 1.3794, 1.3886, 1.3948. Senkou Span B (1.3784) and Kijun-sen (1.3810) lines can also be signal sources. It is recommended to set the Stop Loss level at breakeven when the price passes 20 points in the right direction. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, which should be taken into account when looking for trading signals. UK GDP and Industrial Production reports will be released on Friday, 10 September. In fact, these are quite important reports, but it is far from the fact that the markets will pay attention to them. However, they will leave early in the morning, so they should not be overlooked. There are no major events scheduled in America for today. The pound/dollar pair seems to have begun to resurrect, let's hope that there will be good movements today as well.
We also recommend that you familiarize yourself with the forecast and trading signals for the EUR/USD pair.
COT report
The GBP/USD pair gained 35 points during the last reporting week (August 24-30). The most important group of non-commercial traders continues to reduce their net position, and their mood is becoming increasingly bearish. These changes are clearly visible on the indicators in the chart above. The first indicator clearly shows that the green line (net position of the "non-commercial" group) has already gone below the zero level. Simply put, the mood of the major players turned bearish at this point. You can also see that in the last six months the red and green lines (net positions of the "commercial" and "non-commercial" groups) only moved towards each other, which means the end of the current trend (in our case, an upward trend). However, in fact, we still cannot conclude that the upward trend is over, due to too weak a correction against this trend. It is the weakness of the correction over the past six months that does not allow us to conclude that this is the beginning of a new trend, and not just a correction. Thus, major players continue to sell off the pound, while the currency itself could not even go below the target area of 1.3600-1.3666 after three attempts. Therefore, we believe that in the first place in terms of importance remains the factor of infusion of hundreds of billions of dollars into the US economy by the Fed, which ensures the dollar's depreciation in the long run and does not allow it to strengthen too much in the short term. Non-commercial traders closed 2,500 buy contracts (longs) and almost 5,000 sell contracts (shorts) during the reporting week. Thus, the net position even slightly increased, but this does not change the essence of the matter. So far, the major players are bearish, but this does not help the pound/dollar pair to continue moving below 1.3600.
Explanations for the chart:
Support and Resistance Levels are the levels that serve as targets when buying or selling the pair. You can place Take Profit near these levels.
Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines are lines of the Ichimoku indicator transferred to the hourly timeframe from the 4-hour one.
Support and resistance areas are areas from which the price has repeatedly rebounded off.
Yellow lines are trend lines, trend channels and any other technical patterns.
Indicator 1 on the COT charts is the size of the net position of each category of traders.
Indicator 2 on the COT charts is the size of the net position for the non-commercial group.
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