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The crypto market collapsed amid risk aversion and the uncertainty associated with Evergrande, the second-largest property developer in China.
China's government has already warned banks that Evergrande will not be able to pay debt obligations due September 20. Market participants fear that the company may repeat the fate of Lehman Brothers, triggering a domino effect in the construction market.
Trading floors remained closed in China for the holidays. The opening of the market on Wednesday will show whether the fall is going to continue.
So, analysts struggle to say whether today's rebound will be the first step to recovery or the market is still weak due to uncertainty. Therefore, they recommend investors remain cautious.
Jim Kramer, the host of the Mad Money show on CNBC, urged crypto investors to lock in profits due to the risks associated with Evergrande. He notes that cryptocurrencies may decline further.
"I know the crypto-lovers never want to hear me say sell, but if you've got a big gain as I did, well, I'm begging you to. Don't let it become a loss. Sell some, stay long the rest, then let's wait and see if China changes its attitude toward an Evergrande bailout," he said.
Cramer said that he was largely concerned about tether, a stablecoin pegged to the US dollar. Tether is the third-largest cryptocurrency by market value, trailing only ether and bitcoin.
"The problem with tether is that it's backed by various holdings and roughly half of those are commercial paper - short-term loans - and much of that is believed to be, but we don't know, Chinese commercial paper," Cramer stressed.
Evergrande plays an important role in global markets. Apart from being the second-largest developer in China, the company operates a wide range of businesses, from healthcare to electric vehicles. Failure to fulfill debt obligations exceeding 300 billion is likely to have very negative consequences.
"Tether said they have no Evergrande exposure," Cramer acknowledged. "But tons of Chinese businesses stand to get crushed by this fiasco, and they have Evergrande exposure, and that could spell real trouble if the dominoes fall here," he pointed out.
He called on crypto investors to be alert while the Evergrande situation is not clarified. "If tether collapsed, well, then it's going to gut the whole crypto ecosystem. So if you own crypto in any form and you've got big gains, I recommend taking something off the table," Cramer said.
Speculators who have already closed all positions are commended to do the following. Let's look at the graph. Yesterday's forecast indicated that if BTC/USD fell to the level of 41980.24, this would be an alarming sign. If it hit the support level of 41980.24, then it would be a very good entry point for opening long positions.
Currently, on the chart, a strong false breakout of 41980.24 is seen due to uncertainty. It would be very risky to open any position as nothing is clear. Probably, tomorrow, when trading floors in China reopen after the holidays, there will be more clarity.
Analysts believe that if BTC does not drop below the horizontal level of 41980.24, bitcoin may recover after the panic over Evergrande subsides a little. This scenario is possible if Beijing helps the developer.
However, if BTC/USD fixes below the level of 41980.24, bitcoin is likely to drop lower to $38,000 and then to $34,000.
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