16.11.202116:47 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil: America gets in the way

Since the beginning of 2021, Brent quotes have added about 60% to their value, and WTI with more than 65%, but it is not necessary to count on the same rapid rally in 2022. The reason for everything is high prices, which stimulate production and reduce the deficit on the market. According to the IEA, during the rest of the year, global oil production will increase by 1.5 million b/d, with more than half of this increase due to the United States, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. In 2022, 60% of the increase in production in non-OPEC+ countries will be accounted for by the U.S.

For a long time, oil has been growing by leaps and bounds amid a rapid recovery in global demand and a slow increase in supply. The growth of the latter was under the control of OPEC+. At the same time, the Alliance did not seek to increase production due to constant fears. Either COVID-19 will return, or high prices will lead to an increase in the activity of American companies. The International Energy Agency (IEA) sees high prices as the main reason for the increase in production in the United States.

Most likely, it is the U.S. that will become the main hope of the "bears" for Brent and WTI. Concerned about high inflation and the associated decline in his own rating, Joe Biden undertook to correct the situation by rolling up his sleeves. Either the White House is spreading rumors about the sale of strategic reserves, or it scares OPEC+ by increasing production from American competitors. At the same time, IEA believes that American oil production will not return to pre-pandemic levels until the end of 2022.

The correction of oil is facilitated by a strong dollar and the deterioration of the epidemiological situation in Europe. It is the euro area that becomes the epicenter of the pandemic at the end of autumn, and the increase in the number of infected COVID-19 leaves no chance for the "bulls" on EURUSD. The strengthening of the US dollar is bad news for Brent and WTI, futures for which are quoted in this currency.

Dynamics of EURUSD and the ratio of infected with COVID-19

Of course, oil buyers still have many trump cards in their hands, including the outstripping dynamics of global demand recovery, a slow increase in production by OPEC+, low world reserves, which will be further reduced in the event of a cold winter, and, finally, the replacement of very expensive gas with oil products in the conditions of the energy crisis.

However, sellers also have an opportunity for counterplay. The potential sale of oil from strategic reserves and an increase in the activity of American producers serve the bulls on Brent and WTI. Much depends on which side the boat will swing in. In the meantime, oil is going into consolidation, the exit from which will be a hint about future price dynamics.

Technically, the "Splash and shelf" pattern is forming on the daily chart of the North Sea variety. The trading range within the "shelf" is $81.1-85.1 per barrel. A breakout of its lower border will increase the risks of a rollback in the direction of $78.5 and may serve as a reason for short-term shorts. On the contrary, a confident storm of resistance at $ 85.1 is a signal for the formation of longs with a target of at least $ 92 per barrel.

Brent, Daily chart