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It will be a busy week for the fiat currency market with five central bank meetings scheduled. Trades promise to be volatile, which may affect the dynamics of bitcoin.
How are the two markets related and why do crypto traders need to keep an eye on Wednesday's Fed meeting?
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Commodity Strategist Mike McGlone, commenting on this week's events, notes that the Fed's decisions could affect Bitcoin and Ether. The anticipated cut in the Fed's bond-buying program and higher interest rates are likely to create a macroeconomic environment that could create favorable conditions for the first and second cryptocurrencies next year.
An expert on the pages of the December 2021 Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report believes that deflationary forces in the market could be a catalyst for a new price momentum for top cryptoassets.
McGlone argues this is the inverse correlation of cryptocurrencies with stocks. And if in the coming months the stock market sags a little against the backdrop of tightening monetary policy by the Fed, Bitcoin may benefit from this.
McGlone said in his Global Cryptocurrency Outlook report that China's crackdown on cryptocurrencies has set the vector for wider adoption in other major countries. The expert notes that the United States can create a regulatory environment that will support the industry. And this will give an impetus for further growth in prices in the market.
Another argument for market growth is the rapid growth of revolutionary cryptocurrency-related technologies such as NFTs and crypto dollars. They could become more widespread in the United States, and this, in turn, is likely to strengthen the status of bitcoin as a digital store of value and lead to further growth in its value.
The main agenda for the Fed is rising inflation, which seems to be starting to spiral out of control. Potential market pressures on bond yields and possible catalysts for central bank liquidity could make Bitcoin a "major beneficiary."
McGlone stresses that Bitcoin could find itself in a "win-win" situation if the stock market plunges as a result of the reversal of the expected Fed tightening in 2022. He believes BTC is likely to face hurdles if the stock falls. But if this scenario leads to pressure on the bond market, new moves towards central bank liquidity could contain yields and benefit the cryptocurrency.
The yield on US Treasury bonds cannot exceed the 2% threshold for almost 20 months. At the same time, there was a drop in the yield on 10-year bonds below 1.50% last week.
McGlone noted that the failure to exceed 2% for the benchmark debt occurs "despite widespread perception of higher yields" and may indicate a deflationary environment. And it, in turn, will create favorable conditions for the growth of Bitcoin in 2022.
Nonetheless, the Bloomberg strategist makes a caveat that past performance indicators cannot be considered a guarantee of future growth prospects. Any significant superiority of a new asset class is always accompanied by a larger investment from those who had doubts before.
This is exactly the prospect that could emerge in 2022 when investment managers will seek to avoid the risk of lost profits by strengthening their portfolios by investing in cryptocurrency.
A little more than two days are left before the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. And it is possible that Bitcoin will somehow react to the tone of the central bank, especially if it is hawkish, as expected.
In the meantime, Bitcoin remains in a sideways position between the support zone of 46,934.61 - 47,848.69 and the resistance of 51,697.58, suspiciously not finishing off its resistance.
Let's not lose hope ahead of time, realizing that the power reserve to resistance remains. However, it is worth keeping in mind an alternative and still actual scenario of a fall to the area of $40,000 - $42,000 per coin, if BTCUSD consolidates below the support zone of 46,934.61 - 47,848.69.
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