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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
Market signals on Tuesday said to sell EUR / USD, however, the MACD line was far from zero so the decrease was very limited. It was followed by a signal to buy, but it also failed because the MACD indicator was already in the overbought area. That led to a drop of around 40 pips, which prompted another signal to sell. The last cue was a buy signal that set off a 20-pip increase.
France's report on its state budget did not have any impact on euro yesterday so the market was calm in the morning. By afternoon, there was a slight increase on dollar because data on US house prices exceeded expectations.
It is likely that upcoming reports on the euro area will not affect the market in any way, even though they were about the volume of lending in the private sector and changes in the M3 aggregate of the money supply. In the afternoon, the US will release data on foreign trade balance, wholesale inventories and pending home sales, which, if showed stronger-than-expected figures, will strengthen dollar even more.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1318 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1346. Growth is very unlikely today because attempts to reach the December highs failed.
Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1298, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1318 and 1.1346.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1298 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1266. Breaking out of 1.1298 will increase pressure on EUR / USD. Good US data will remind traders of the actions that the Fed will take to influence inflation.
Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1318, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1298 and 1.1266.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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