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Analysis of transactions in the EUR / USD pair
EUR / USD hit 1.1305 at a time when the MACD line was in the overbought area. That formed a signal to sell the euro, but did not lead to a decline, which was quite surprising. The signal to sell at 1.1330 also did not give the expected result. It was the latest Fed minutes that returned the market into balance.
PMI data in the eurozone were revised downward due to the coronavirus. Meanwhile, similar reports from the US turned out much better than expected, however, dollar increased only when the Fed released its minutes of the meeting. It did not rise even though the ADP employment report was also strong.
Today, pressure on EUR / USD could ease provided that the upcoming reports on the euro area exceed expectations. Strong CPI and orders in Germany, as well as good PPI in the eurozone, will strike a blow to the plans of the European Central Bank, which could lead to the strengthening of euro. Statements of board member Isabel Schnabel could also provoke demand on the currency.
In the afternoon, US data on foreign trade balance and jobless claims could bring the market back into balance. Business activity in the service sector could also help dollar increase because an improvement in the indicator will have a positive effect on the economy. That will be a signal to sell EUR / USD.
For long positions:
Buy euro when the quote reaches 1.1316 (green line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1345. Growth is very unlikely today because upcoming data on the eurozone is expected to be weak.
Before buying, make sure that the MACD line is above zero, or is starting to rise from it. It is also possible to buy at 1.1296, but the MACD line should be in the oversold area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1316 and 1.1345.
For short positions:
Sell euro when the quote reaches 1.1296 (red line on the chart) and take profit at the price of 1.1261. Strong data from the US will prompt a decline in EUR / USD.
Before selling, make sure that the MACD line is below zero, or is starting to move down from it. Euro could also be sold at 1.1316, however, the MACD line should be in the overbought area, as only by that will the market reverse to 1.1296 and 1.1261.
What's on the chart:
The thin green line is the key level at which you can place long positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick green line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move above this level.
The thin red line is the level at which you can place short positions in the EUR/USD pair.
The thick red line is the target price, since the quote is unlikely to move below this level.
MACD line - when entering the market, it is important to be guided by the overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. Before the release of important reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid being caught in sharp fluctuations in the rate. If you decide to trade during the release of news, then always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without placing stop orders, you can very quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember that for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is an inherently losing strategy for an intraday trader.
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