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To open long positions on EUR/USD, you need:
On Friday, a fairly large number of signals were formed to enter the market. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and figure out what happened. In my morning forecast, I paid attention to the 1.1374 level and recommended making decisions on entering the market from it. A slight rise in the euro in the first half of the day and a false breakout - all this led to a signal to sell the euro. Despite the low volatility of the pair, the euro's downward movement took place in the morning, which made it possible to take more than 30 points of profit from the market. A false breakout at the level of 1.1354, which I paid attention to in my afternoon forecast, resulted in forming a signal to buy the euro. The upward movement was 15 points and then the bears regained control of the market. The speech of the Federal Reserve representatives influenced the direction of the EUR/USD pair. A breakthrough and reverse test of 1.1354 provided an excellent sell signal, which led to a major sell-off of the euro by another 40 points.
Today promises to be less volatile than last Friday. Data on activity in the eurozone are expected. It could shake up the market and somehow positively influence long positions on the euro observed during the Asian session. It seems that the markets are not so pessimistic about the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine. It is important to protect the support of 1.1344, which was formed by last Friday's results. Moving averages pass just above this level, which also creates some advantage for the bulls. Forming a false breakout at the level of 1.1344 creates the first entry point into long positions in continuation of the upward correction. However, in order to count on a larger recovery of EUR/USD and the pair's exit from the horizontal channel, bulls should be more active and surpass the resistance of 1.1378, as they could not push the pair to settle above it by the end of Friday. Strong data on business activity in the manufacturing sector, the eurozone services sector and the composite PMI index of the eurozone, as well as a breakthrough and a top-down test of 1.1378 - all this will lead to another buy signal and open the possibility for the pair to recover to the area of 1.1414, near which it will become a little easier for euro bulls to "breathe". Surpassing this range will resume the bullish trend and open a direct road to the highs: 1.1452 and 1.1491, where I recommend taking profits. With the aggravation of the US-Russia-Ukraine geopolitical conflict, the demand for the US dollar will return quickly, so be careful with buying euros at current highs. If the pair declines during the European session and there is no activity at 1.1344, everything can end very badly. Therefore, it is best not to rush with long positions. The optimal scenario would be a false breakout at 1.1316, but you can buy the euro immediately on a rebound from the level of 1.1283, or even lower - around 1.1235, counting on an upward correction of 20-25 points within the day.
To open short positions on EUR/USD, you need:
Bears should prove themselves in the resistance area of 1.1378, as a lot depends on this level today. Given that volatility will be very low in the afternoon – a holiday in the United States in connection with the celebration of the President's Day, it is expected that all activity will fall on the European session. To keep the pair within the horizontal channel, the bears need to defend the resistance of 1.1378, which is where the bulls are now focused. Forming a false breakout at this level and mediocre data on activity in different eurozone countries - all this will be a signal to open short positions in order to pull EUR/USD to the middle of the 1.1344 channel. A breakdown of this area and a reverse test from the bottom up will provide another signal to open short positions with the prospect of falling to a low of 1.1316. A more distant target will be the 1.1283 region, but its renewal will be possible in the event of an aggravation of the situation and a military conflict on the territory of Ukraine. I recommend taking profits in the area of 1.1283. In case the euro grows and bears are not active at 1.1378, it is best not to rush with short positions. The optimal scenario will be short positions when forming a false breakout in the area of 1.1414. You can sell EUR/USD immediately for a rebound from 1.1452, or even higher - around 1.1491, counting on a downward correction of 15-20 points.
I recommend for review:
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report for February 8 showed that long positions increased while short ones decreased. This report already takes into account the European Central Bank meeting, at which its president Christine Lagarde made it clear to all market participants that the central bank will act more aggressively if the observed picture with inflation does not change, or changes for the worse. Last week, officials from the ECB took a wait-and-see attitude, and a technical reversal of the bull market led to a decline in the EUR/USD pair. Demand for risky assets has also decreased due to the risk of a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. However, a more weighty argument for the observed downward movement of the EUR/USD pair is the Federal Reserve's actions in relation to interest rates. An extraordinary meeting was held on Monday, February 14, the results of which were preferred to be hidden from the public – this is even more adding fuel to the fire that is flaring up around high inflationary pressure in the United States. Some economists expect that the central bank may resort to more aggressive actions and raise rates immediately by 0.5% in March this year, rather than by 0.25%, as originally planned. This is a kind of bullish signal for the US dollar. The COT report indicates that long non-commercial positions increased from the level of 213,563 to the level of 218,973, while short non-commercial positions decreased from the level of 183,847 to the level of 180,131. This suggests that traders continue to build up long positions with every good decline in the European currency. At the end of the week, the total non-commercial net position increased slightly and amounted to 38,842 against 29,716. The weekly closing price jumped and amounted to 1.1441 against 1.1229 a week earlier.
Indicator signals:
Trading is conducted around the 30 and 50 day moving averages, which indicates the horizontal nature of the market.
Moving averages
Note: The period and prices of moving averages are considered by the author on the H1 hourly chart and differs from the general definition of the classic daily moving averages on the daily D1 chart.
Bollinger Bands
A breakthrough of the upper limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1378 will lead to a new wave of euro growth. In case of a decline, the lower limit of the indicator in the area of 1.1315 will act as support.
Description of indicators
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