10.03.202208:30 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US bans Russian oil imports

Democrats in the House of Representatives have unveiled a law banning Russian oil imports to the U.S. amid growing political pressure to punish Russia for its military operation in Ukraine. However, the United States did not demand such measures from their European colleagues, apparently understanding the entire dependence of European countries on Russian gas and oil. The bill was passed immediately after President Joe Biden announced his desire to impose a ban on Russian crude oil and other commodities.

The new bill of the House of Representatives prohibits the import of Russian crude oil, liquefied natural gas, coal, and refined products such as gasoline and kerosene. The bill will enter into force 45 days after its adoption. According to American politicians, this was a response to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine after the start of a military operation on its territory. Russia, in response to Biden's decision, issued an order stating that in response it would restrict trade in certain goods and raw materials, but did not mention key details of which categories of goods could be affected.

Experts say the measure could also lead to a review of Russia's access to the World Trade Organization, as well as reauthorize and strengthen the Magnitsky Act, which calls for sanctions against human rights violators.

However, how the future of the bill will develop in the Senate, the question remains. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has praised Biden's move to ban energy imports from Russia, but has yet to commit to his House passing separate legislation.

Against this background, oil prices rose at the beginning of the week, but by Wednesday they stabilized a bit. On Thursday, WTI fell from a high of $123 to $117. Note that several oil companies have already refused to cooperate with Gazprom and, in general, to work on the territory of the Russian Federation. Most recently, Shell apologized for buying Russian oil and announced that it would no longer buy Russian oil and gas. "As an immediate first step, the company will stop all spot purchases of Russian crude oil. It will also shut its service stations, aviation fuels and lubricants operations in Russia," the report says. Shell CEO Ben van Beurden also said that the company was clearly aware that the decision last week to purchase a batch of Russian crude oil for further processing into gasoline and diesel fuel was wrong, and he very much regrets what he did.

As for WTI oil prices, from a technical point of view, there is a major support around $115 per barrel. Its breakdown may increase the pressure on the trading instrument, which will lead to a powerful sale in the region of $110 per barrel, but nothing more. The fact of the energy crisis, which is just beginning to flare up, will continue to put pressure on the markets and investors, so it is definitely not necessary to expect oil below $100 per barrel in the near future. A break above $122 is bound to lead to a stronger push higher and a return to the $129/bbl high. The prospect of a $140 exit is only a matter of time.

The U.S. dollar also reacts to all this by rising in pairs with risky assets. The bulls returned to support around 1.1108, which keeps the demand for the trading instrument. However, geopolitical tensions around Russia and Ukraine will limit the upward potential. Euro buyers need to consolidate above 1.1180, which will allow to continue the correction to the highs: 1.1230 and 1.1310. A decrease in the trading instrument will be met with active purchases in the 1.1000 area. However, the area of 1.0810 remains the key support level.