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Yesterday was a rather boring day in terms of macroeconomic statistics due to the lack of significant statistical data for the market. The only thing that was published was the index of pending home sales in the United States, which was of little interest to anyone.
The EURUSD currency pair has overcome the local low on March 23, 2020. This move led to a significant increase in the volume of short positions, which made it possible for sellers to lower the euro rate to 1.0500. The scale of decline since the beginning of the week is about 300 points.
On the trading chart of the daily period, the quote movement is observed at the levels of spring 2017. In fact, this is a signal of price movement towards parity – 1.0000.
The GBPUSD currency pair managed to decline by more than 550 points in just one trading week due to an intensive downward move. This led to the prolongation of the medium-term trend and the breakdown of a number of important price levels.
The daily trading chart shows a gradual recovery relative to the upward trend of 2020. More than 61% has already been won back.
The first estimate of the US GDP for the first quarter is expected today. The data may reflect a significant slowdown in economic growth, which will lead to a weakening of dollar positions.
At the same time, weekly data on jobless claims will be published, which is predicted to reduce in volume. This is a positive factor for the US labor market.
Statistics details:
The volume of continuing claims for benefits may be reduced from 1.417 million to 1.403 million.
The volume of initial claims for benefits may be reduced from 184,000 to 180,000.
Time targeting
US GDP - 12:30 UTC
US Jobless Claims - 12:30 UTC
The level of 1.0500 plays the role of a support in the market, which may lead to a reduction in the volume of short positions. As a result, a technical pullback or a full-size correction is allowed. At the same time, the inertia-speculative behavior of traders allows a breakdown of the control level, where the signal of oversold will be ignored by market participants. In this case, holding the price below 1.0500 in a four-hour period will lead to the subsequent weakening of the euro towards 1.0350.
A stable holding of the price below the level of 1.2500 may lead to a subsequent increase in the volume of short positions. The signal about the oversold pound sterling can be ignored by speculators, who are focused on the inertial move.
The technical correction scenario is still being considered by traders, but in order to confirm it, the quote first needs to determine the pivot point.
Note that the values of 1.2500, 1.2250, and 1.2000 are considered as variable pivot points.
A candlestick chart view is graphical rectangles of white and black light, with sticks on top and bottom. When analyzing each candle in detail, you will see its characteristics of a relative period: the opening price, closing price, and maximum and minimum prices.
Horizontal levels are price coordinates, relative to which a stop or a price reversal may occur. These levels are called support and resistance in the market.
Circles and rectangles are highlighted examples where the price of the story unfolded. This color selection indicates horizontal lines that may put pressure on the quote in the future.
The up/down arrows are the reference points of the possible price direction in the future.
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